Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Mathew Dumba trade

Official press release
We feel acquiring the rights to Mathew Dumba is a risk worth taking. He’s an impact player who can dominate both ends of the ice. He would also bring terrific character and leadership, as he’s a very highly-regarded player around the league,” said Portland Winterhawks General Manager & Head Coach Mike Johnston. “It was a difficult decision to trade Presten Kopeck as he has been an integral part of our championship team the last two seasons. His character and ability will certainly help the Rebels move forward with their young group.”

Scott Sepich / Oregonian
A native of Regina, Saskatchewan, Dumba was chosen seventh overall in the 2012 NHL draft. In 199 WHL games, he has scored 51 goals
Johnston is already familiar with Dumba because the Hawks considered selecting him with the first overall pick in the 2009 WHL bantam draft. The Hawks eventually settled on defenseman Derrick Pouliot, who will join Dumba on Canada’s world junior team.
“It was either him or Pouliot,” Johnston said of the 2009 decision. “I always liked him.”
Dylan Bumbarger / Oregonian
 1. Trading Presten Kopeck may have been a necessary move by itself;
2. leveraging that into a chance to get Mathew Dumba relatively cheap is brilliant;
3. Red Deer could have waited and gotten more if they new Minnesota was inclined to send him back;
4. but they presumably know that, so the chances he gets sent back might not be as big as people think.

Nick Patterson / Everett Hearld
So Portland is going for broke. That's no surprise, as the Winterhawks have been to the league finals three straight years and have the team to make it four straight. The question I have is: What dominoes fall next?

Andrew Eide /
It may sound silly at first to suggest that the Portland Winterhawks need an upgrade of any kind. After all, we are talking about a team that has the best record in the WHL, is leading its conference and is far and away the top goal scoring club in the league.
But they do need an upgrade.
What the need is some help on the blue line and that’s why this move is such a good one for them.
Allan Caldwell
I say potential blockbuster because of the small detail that Dumba is currently in the NHL, on the roster of the Minnesota Wild. But he hasn't suited up for a game for them in over two weeks and has only played in 13 of 32 games overall, averaging 12 and a half minutes of ice time per game. Which is not a lot of ice time for a defenceman so all these factors put together - plus the fact that they've already decided to loan him to the Canadian team for the World Juniors - would seem to indicate that the Wild are coming to the conclusion that Dumba is not in their plans for the remainder of this season. If I were a betting man I would be laying down a wager that we'll see Dumba in Winterhawks colours by the 2nd week of January.

Dumba in his draft year:

Dumba at the draft:

Scoring his first NHL goal:

I agree with Dylan in that loosing Kopeck is actually a positive.  Don't get me wrong, I'm as big a backer of Kopeck as the next guy: he's a heart and soul guy, 200 foot player, etc.  The 'Hawks brought him up as a black ace during their first WHL finals run, which says a lot.  His teammates here were  vocal on twitter about what he meant to them individually, as well as a team.

The other side of where Kopeck fits in with this team is he's an undrafted 18, with 29 career points.  Ice time looked to be hard to come by on this 'Hawks team:  Kopeck probably wasn't going to crack the top line with Petan & Leipsic, the Leier-De Leo-Bjorkstrand line is pretty much set, and the Schoenborn - Turgeon - Iverson line has been playing well, and are close to being dominate most nights.  The 'Hawks have been fortunate to have so many quality forwards, as they've had injuries to this point, and are loosing guys to the World Juniors, but at some point they will have really good players in street clothes during games.

Sometimes it seems like every western hockey scout lives in Edmonton or Calgary - and now Kopeck will be playing right between those cities.  He's also playing for a Sutter - and he plays like a Sutter, too.  You've got to think this trade is the best thing for his career, even if it greatly reduces the chances of championships at this level.

Two concepts that apply at all levels of hockey are that if you win the cup, then it doesn't matter what assets it cost you to do so, and whoever gets the best player in a deal wins that trade.  Currently Preston Kopeck is the best player in this trade, unless the Wild send down Dumba.

We've seen some heavy prices paid over the last few years stocking up for a playoff run.  Dylan pointed out that compared to the Craig Cunningham, Marcel Nobels, or even the Luca Sbisa trade - they actually gave up less for Dumba, and he's potentially the most valuable of the lot.

The obvious risk here is those picks - 3 second rounders. (By not getting this written until the next day, the value of those picks has come out - which paints a fuller picture).  If I'm reading that correctly, the 2nd in 2014 was Everett's pick, which would lead me to believe that Portland still has their own 2nd, (I hope), which further lessens the blow of spending the limited resource of good draft picks.

Upon the end of last years championship season, we looked at how the 'Hawks were built.  Players drafted in the 1st round lately include Ty Rattie, Derrick Pouliot, and Nic Petan.  Key contributors from the 2nd round have names like Wotherspoon, Leier, Morrow, Ponich, Mucha, and Texeira.  Not picking until the 3rd round can fetch you players such as Kopeck, Turgeon, and Brendan Burke - which ain't bad - but there is a drop off from the guys from the 1st & 2nd rounds.

 Of course, the 'Hawks have had success signing listed players.  Guys like Keegan Iverson, Paul Bittner, & Alex Schoenborn were undrafted, but are comparable to what you would hope to find in the first two rounds of the bantam draft.  If you can find one of those guys each year,  it greatly diminishes the impact of not having those draft picks.  Time will tell.

No comments:

Post a Comment