Brendan Burke's numbers in 2014

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We all know that Burke's been great in 2014, at least post trade deadline.  Some feel its the addition of Corbin Boes, others feel that Mathew Dumba has been the difference.  I feel that its a "tastes great / less filling" kind of debate - and a nice one to have.

What do Burke's numbers look like, you ask?  On January 4th of this year, he was sitting on a 3.22 goals against, and a .900% save percentage.  There's been worse in major junior for sure, but that's not exactly Memorial Cup kind of numbers.

According to the WHL website, his January totals were 1.83 / 0.934 in 8 games - which ain't bad.  February saw him go 2.33 / .912 & March looked like 1.33 / .950 - which you can live with.

If you start with the games after that January 4th point referenced earlier, his totals through the end of the season finished at 1.42 / .950 over a 12 game span, assuming my math is correct.  While not the biggest sample size, it sure seems like Burke's trending in the right direction, and the 4 games in round one demonstrated a 1.75 / .924 - which is fantastic considering how rough his game 1 was.

There's been talk about Portland's goaltending being a question mark.  Looks like its been answered to me.

Matt Dumba, Anton Cederholm, and fighting

 

That sequence is why there is fighting in hockey.  This is a contact sport, played at 35 MPH, with a weapon.  There has to be a release valve, or else things will completely boil over.  I think we all understand that you cannot always count on the officials to administer justice properly - often times the game has to self police.

This was Mathew Dumba's debut in a Portland sweater.   As the video clearly shows, Eberle comes in high on Dumba, as is demonstrated by the assessment of a 2 minute minor.  Cederholm stands in for his newest teamate - he holds Eberle accountable for his actions.

Some would argue that simply taking the powerplay is the right move, but do you really want to leave these things in the hands of the referees?   There are players better suited for fisticuffs than Cederholm, but when you're on the ice & the first man there sometimes you've gotta get in there.

In this instance, Eberle got 2 for the initial hit, and Cederholm picked up an extra 2 + 10 for instating, negating the powerplay & leaving the 'Hawks short a defenseman for a 17 minute stretch of the game.  There were real consequences for Cederholm's actions there, and I'm just fine with that.  There are plenty of times that you will "invest" a 2 minute minor (or worse) to send a message - in this case the message is not to take cheap shots at our new star defenseman.

Even in instances where you give up a powerplay goal - that's still a better price to pay than allowing some goons to take runs at your guys.  

Another piece of this puzzle is these two defencemen probably don't even know each others names yet - and in Dumba's 1st game in Portland he sees his new family going to bat for him.  These occurrences often times go a long way in team building - helping to jell as a group.  That's pretty important this time of year.

Open letter to the Minnesota Wild

What to do with Mathew Dumba? 

You have a lot invested - the 7th overall pick is serious business.  Dumba has to pan out, or it will set the franchise back 5 years - or worse.

Many teams find themselves in this dilemma:  you have a player who's too good for junior hockey, but not ready for a regular shift in the NHL.  As a player in his 19 year old season - the only options available are the NHL and the WHL.  I'm sure that some seasoning in Iowa would be an attractive option for this player, but that's not on the table.

We all have high hopes for Dumba, furthered with him making the Wild out of training camp.  In his 3rd career game, he buried a nice powerplay goal, and went on to play over 15 minutes:

However, the jump to the highest level of hockey in the world is not an easy one, and its been hard to get Dumba in the lineup since then.  He's only seen the ice for 13 games this year.  In those games, he's averaging 12:26 of ice time.  There are 45 rookie defenseman who average  more ice time this season.

It made perfect sense to loan Dumba to Team Canada for the World Junior Championships, which just concluded.  While Canada didn't get the result they were hoping for,  he played an integral part of that D corps, and was counted on in all situations.  He didn't have the tournament he wanted on a personal note either: minor injuries, illness, and overall rust were factors that he fought to overcome.  The outside observer may conclude from this tournament that he's still not ready for a regular shift for the Wild.

Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the now: day to day, game to game.  If you keep a special player like this close to the vest, in the tutelage of the Wild coaching staff, he'll be ready to contribute any day now.  The  main goal with developing players that you have so much invested in is what is he going to be at 25, 26, 27 - and beyond?

You don't have to look very far to find a similar story: Nino Niederreiter.  Ask him what it was like that first year with the Islanders: healthy scratch, 4th line, no significant role, rinse-lather-repeat.  If the 5th overall pick can only manage 1 goal, zero assists, and (-29), don't you think he was better suited playing his 19 year old year in major junior?  Its not a stretch to think the only way Nino was available to you was due to the Islanders mismanagement of the player.  Nino's center in the WHL could tell you the same story - he got jerked around during his 19 year as well, and is just now starting to turn the corner.

One of the best benefits of Dumba finishing the season in the WHL is a potentially long playoff run, with a quality franchise.  Under the current regime, we've seen 6 defencemen drafted in the last 4 drafts - 3 in the 1st round - and 20 players overall.  This is a team that played more playoff games last season than Dumba's entire WHL career, and is a contender for their 4th trip to the league finals.

You sent him down to the World Juniors to face elite competition, be counted upon in a starring role, and be immersed in a winning culture.  Those are the same reasons to send him back to the WHL to finish the season.

A 19 year old needs to be playing games, period.  Weather its in St Paul or Portland is almost beside the point.  He needs the minutes, the experience, the progression.  I trust you'll make the correct decision.

Mathew Dumba trade

Want to thank the @pdxwinterhawks for everything they have done for me. Great organization. Excited to get started with @Rebelshockey
— Presten Kopeck (@Kopeck12) December 10, 2013

Official press release

We feel acquiring the rights to Mathew Dumba is a risk worth taking. He’s an impact player who can dominate both ends of the ice. He would also bring terrific character and leadership, as he’s a very highly-regarded player around the league,” said Portland Winterhawks General Manager & Head Coach Mike Johnston. “It was a difficult decision to trade Presten Kopeck as he has been an integral part of our championship team the last two seasons. His character and ability will certainly help the Rebels move forward with their young group.”

Scott Sepich / Oregonian

A native of Regina, Saskatchewan, Dumba was chosen seventh overall in the 2012 NHL draft. In 199 WHL games, he has scored 51 goals

Johnston is already familiar with Dumba because the Hawks considered selecting him with the first overall pick in the 2009 WHL bantam draft. The Hawks eventually settled on defenseman Derrick Pouliot, who will join Dumba on Canada’s world junior team.

“It was either him or Pouliot,” Johnston said of the 2009 decision. “I always liked him.”

Dylan Bumbarger / Oregonian

 1. Trading Presten Kopeck may have been a necessary move by itself;
2. leveraging that into a chance to get Mathew Dumba relatively cheap is brilliant;
3. Red Deer could have waited and gotten more if they new Minnesota was inclined to send him back;
4. but they presumably know that, so the chances he gets sent back might not be as big as people think.

Nick Patterson / Everett Hearld

So Portland is going for broke. That's no surprise, as the Winterhawks have been to the league finals three straight years and have the team to make it four straight. The question I have is: What dominoes fall next?

Andrew Eide / thehockeywriters.com

It may sound silly at first to suggest that the Portland Winterhawks need an upgrade of any kind. After all, we are talking about a team that has the best record in the WHL, is leading its conference and is far and away the top goal scoring club in the league.

But they do need an upgrade.

What the need is some help on the blue line and that’s why this move is such a good one for them.

Allan Caldwell

I say potential blockbuster because of the small detail that Dumba is currently in the NHL, on the roster of the Minnesota Wild. But he hasn't suited up for a game for them in over two weeks and has only played in 13 of 32 games overall, averaging 12 and a half minutes of ice time per game. Which is not a lot of ice time for a defenceman so all these factors put together - plus the fact that they've already decided to loan him to the Canadian team for the World Juniors - would seem to indicate that the Wild are coming to the conclusion that Dumba is not in their plans for the remainder of this season. If I were a betting man I would be laying down a wager that we'll see Dumba in Winterhawks colours by the 2nd week of January.

Dumba in his draft year:

Dumba at the draft:

Scoring his first NHL goal:

I agree with Dylan in that loosing Kopeck is actually a positive.  Don't get me wrong, I'm as big a backer of Kopeck as the next guy: he's a heart and soul guy, 200 foot player, etc.  The 'Hawks brought him up as a black ace during their first WHL finals run, which says a lot.  His teammates here were  vocal on twitter about what he meant to them individually, as well as a team.

The other side of where Kopeck fits in with this team is he's an undrafted 18, with 29 career points.  Ice time looked to be hard to come by on this 'Hawks team:  Kopeck probably wasn't going to crack the top line with Petan & Leipsic, the Leier-De Leo-Bjorkstrand line is pretty much set, and the Schoenborn - Turgeon - Iverson line has been playing well, and are close to being dominate most nights.  The 'Hawks have been fortunate to have so many quality forwards, as they've had injuries to this point, and are loosing guys to the World Juniors, but at some point they will have really good players in street clothes during games.

Sometimes it seems like every western hockey scout lives in Edmonton or Calgary - and now Kopeck will be playing right between those cities.  He's also playing for a Sutter - and he plays like a Sutter, too.  You've got to think this trade is the best thing for his career, even if it greatly reduces the chances of championships at this level.

Two concepts that apply at all levels of hockey are that if you win the cup, then it doesn't matter what assets it cost you to do so, and whoever gets the best player in a deal wins that trade.  Currently Preston Kopeck is the best player in this trade, unless the Wild send down Dumba.

We've seen some heavy prices paid over the last few years stocking up for a playoff run.  Dylan pointed out that compared to the Craig Cunningham, Marcel Nobels, or even the Luca Sbisa trade - they actually gave up less for Dumba, and he's potentially the most valuable of the lot.

The obvious risk here is those picks - 3 second rounders. (By not getting this written until the next day, the value of those picks has come out - which paints a fuller picture).  If I'm reading that correctly, the 2nd in 2014 was Everett's pick, which would lead me to believe that Portland still has their own 2nd, (I hope), which further lessens the blow of spending the limited resource of good draft picks.

Upon the end of last years championship season, we looked at how the 'Hawks were built.  Players drafted in the 1st round lately include Ty Rattie, Derrick Pouliot, and Nic Petan.  Key contributors from the 2nd round have names like Wotherspoon, Leier, Morrow, Ponich, Mucha, and Texeira.  Not picking until the 3rd round can fetch you players such as Kopeck, Turgeon, and Brendan Burke - which ain't bad - but there is a drop off from the guys from the 1st & 2nd rounds.

 Of course, the 'Hawks have had success signing listed players.  Guys like Keegan Iverson, Paul Bittner, & Alex Schoenborn were undrafted, but are comparable to what you would hope to find in the first two rounds of the bantam draft.  If you can find one of those guys each year,  it greatly diminishes the impact of not having those draft picks.  Time will tell.