2015-16: 20 game mark

Mike Johnston always said something along the lines of  "You know what kind of team you have after 20 games...." - around here we take what MJ says pretty seriously.

Its unclear what this Winterhawks team is to this point, which is 18 games in as of this writing.  This is a team that has started slow for as long as I've been watching them - last season they were 8-11-3 at this point last season.  In fact, they didn't reach .500 until (American) Thanksgiving - yet they tied Everett in wins while attempting to win the US Division.

I wrote about their slow start in 2013-14: a season where they lost Game 7 of the WHL Final.

This team sits at 8-9 currently.  They've scored 5 goals in 2 of those losses.  On two occasions they won the game despite only putting up 2 goals.  Adin Hill has recorded 3 shutouts on the young season, but they were shut out once by Prince Albert.

They've shown flashes of brilliance, and can't get out of their own way at times.  Kelowna has been a "measuring stick" game over the last few years - this year is no exception.  Taking a 3-2 lead mid-3rd period is a sign of good things to come.  Turning that lead into a 5-3 deficit over an 8 minute span is a problem.  Jumping out to a 3-0 lead after 20 minutes the next night: sure seems like the proper adjustments were made.  However, back to back periods of giving up 4 goals spoiled that promising start.

Entering the Kelowna weekend Hill's GAA was right at 2.00, for a .500 team.  A junior team giving up 2 goals a game should be clipping along at .750 - or better.  This is a team that's scored 5 goals in 8 games so far - pretty much half the games they've played so far.

It might be easy as they're just inconsistent so far.  All junior teams are, right?


The "eye test" is that their struggles are as simple as a handful defensive breakdowns at the wrong time, which I don't have a good way to quantify or break down here.

One issue I have that is demonstrable is Paul Bittner.  I've been really high on him since he was a 15 - especially when he potted those 4 consecutive game winning goals during tournament time.  He ended up with 12 goals in 45 games that season - which projects out to 19 goals in a full 72 game season.  Pretty damn good for a 16 with limited ice time.

Currently Paul is sitting on 4 goals - a 17 goal pace for a full season.  That's just not good enough for a guy that Portland fans are counting on to deliver.  Of course, he lost both of his linemates.  There's a whole new set of expectations.  He'll improve.

The flip side is Team Captain Dominic Turgeon.  I'd heard some folks expressing they felt that Turgeon has a 40 goal season in his sights - which is pretty much the rate he's been shooting so far.  Can he maintain this pace?

Guys like Shoenborn & Iverson are about where a lot of us thought they'd be.  I feel there's a higher level both guys can get to, and if this team wants to do some damage they will both have to.

If they can marry the periods where they play lights out defense with the instances where they demonstrate all that firepower - then they're back in business.  They've shown the ability to play both ends of the ice at an elite level - but not game in & game out yet.

Gregg Drinnan says the season starts at Christmas.  The Los Angles Kings model - take the regular season off & get hot in the playoffs - could be applicable in a conference where only 2 teams miss the playoffs, but most Portland fans would rather they just got their shit together.

Open Letter to Kieffer Bellows

First off, congratulations on winning the Clark Cup!  Earning a championship seems like a great way to cap off a "rookie of the year" caliber season.  Putting up 33G / 19A / 52PTS in 58 games is one hell of a season for anyone - let alone a 16 year old forward.  Playoff runs producing 9G / 3A / 12PTS in 12 games played will get a guy noticed - as well as potential nicknames like "Cy Young".  It takes 9 wins to hoist the Clark Cup - 4 game winning goals coming off of your stick.

It must have been pretty special to win it all last season as well, contributing for Edina High School as they won State (again).  Many of us out west haven't experienced "the road to the X" - but we know its serious business. 

Committing to Boston University was a very mature decision to make as a young hockey player.  The NCAA route is the right move for many players, and the combination of a 30 game schedule & 1st class education seems attractive indeed.   College hockey is especially suited towards smaller players & late bloomers.

Hockey players are competitive sons-a-bitches by nature, and I'm sure that you're no different.  What you really want to do is end up a better player than your father, who had loads of success:  485 NHL goals, 1993 Stanley Cup Champion, a case for the Hall of Fame.  Some have questioned his toughness, but not his heart.  Brian Bellows starred in the 1982 Memorial Cup: winning it for Kitchner. 

It had to be a difficult decision to leave Edina, and all their success, for the USHL - but I'm sure you're glad you did.  Paul Bittner had a similar crossroads up in Crookston, and the tougher road to take looks like the right one.  Keegan Iverson left St Louis Park to play major junior, and there's an ongoing documentary being produced about his hockey career.  Blake Heinrich left Cambridge to play for Sioux City, and ended up wearing the "C" for a team with some playoff success.  Playing for Minnesota-Duluth was his initial plan, but ultimately headed out west to Portland - playing a key role.  My suggestion to you would be to ask these Minnesotans about what playing in the WHL is like.

The goal scoring tear you went on during the 2nd half + playoffs this year was pretty impressive.  Players developing at similar rates generally don't stay in college long: one year, maybe two.  Many observers feel that a development path involving major junior makes more sense for a guy like yourself.  Playing 30 games in college is great, but guys in Portland have played 20+ games on average over the last 5 seasons - in the playoffs alone - in addition to a 72 game regular season. 

It had to be frustrating to see how things went with Coach Eades just days after winning the war that was the Clark Cup playoffs.  He'll be fine in Fargo, but do you really want to go up against him all season?  Sioux Falls new coach Scott Owens has a long track record, and I'm sure he'll bounce back from that 7 win campaign he's coming off of.

The ultimate goal is the NHL, correct?  How many chances do you get to play for a coach with a couple of recent Stanley Cups on his resume?  Coach Kompon is simply trying to carry on the winning tradition established by the guy who's currently coaching Sidney Crosby & Evgeni Malkin, by the way.

Keep playing like you did this season & the scouts would find you anywhere.  Of course, playing in a league with 56 guys ranked by NHL Central Scouting seems like it would help get one noticed.  In fact, 9 of the top 30 North American skaters played in the 'Dub this year.  Scouts watching Portland's games picked up on guys like Ryan Johansen, Nino Neiderreiter, Sven Baertchi, Derrick Pouliot, Joe Morrow, & Seth Jones - all guys who went in the 1st round since 2011.

Its pretty easy to conclude that you made the right decision playing in Sioux Falls this year - championships are always the goal.  Its hard to say what kind of opportunity you would have had in Portland as a 16 year old forward on that team - they had a ton of talent up front, and won a bunch of games.  However, it looks like Portland needs to replace 4 of their top 5 scorers from last season.  At the same time, they will bring back 4 NHL-drafted forwards to start the year (plus 3 defenseman & a goalie who've been drafted, too).  Factor all that in, and there's a top 6 spot open, and guys that can get you the puck.  In front of scouts, too.

You're pretty much playing with house money here:  the pro scouts will notice you in South Dakota, Oregon, Massachusetts, or wherever you play.  Picking up a year or two of school along the lines is great - as life after hockey is a 100% certainty.  Of course, players in the WHL earn scholarships for each year they play, in 1/2 year increments - in addition to taking classes during the season.  Its fully within the realm of possibility that playing 3 years of WHL hockey would leave you with more completed college credits than one or two years of Boston University - even if they don't have the clout of a school like BC - and if hockey doesn't work out, that WHL scholarship program would come in real handy.

In conclusion, we'll keep the light on for you in Portland.  Pro-style league, pro scouts, & plenty of opportunity.  If you want to match your dads Memorial Cup, Portland is your only shot.  You'll be drafted either way, but there's more chances to shine out west.  Winterhawks fans are pretty dedicated - you're not gonna see that from the Herd, or the Terriers.  Its always fun playing in front of big crowds, which we have.

I trust you'll make the right decision.

Sincerly,

Chad Balcom
Cell Phones & Plane Tickets

 Annie Fowler, of the Tri-City Herald is kind enough to put together a WHL Best of the West poll each year, and hot off the presses its here:

2015 Best of the West

For fun, here's the last one, with some background on how this is put together.  Its a lot of work, and we are lucky that she puts it together for us.

Neely Cup: 2014-15 training camp

Day 1

First off, I like Brendon De Jong.  He's big: 6'4", and like most folks I fall in love with a D man built like that.  Looks like he's got good wheels, and keeps his head up in his own end reading the play.  Looked impressive to me, in a position of need.

Oliver Bjorkstrand is good at hockey.  Scored, toyed with people.

Was watching Nick Heid closely.  He's not as big as I'd like, but looked to be a smooth skater.

Blake Heinrich was also smaller than I'd hoped for.  Didn't notice him much.  5th round Capitals pick a year ago.

Schoenborn was flying around, and scored a goal.  There was a sequence where someone hit him hard, he got up and took a number, and gave it right back same shift.

Bittner was getting up and down the ice in a hurry.  Scored two goals:  a backhander and a snipe going in all alone.  There's first round NHL draft talk for him this year, and I'm with 'em.

Brendan Burke remembered to bring his glove hand back to town.

Predinchuk looked pretty good.  Several times I had to look up who "15 in grey" was.  Good wheels.

Trent Lofthouse looked like he's been around the block.  Trying to make his case for an overage spot.

Jack Flaman: he'd be a 17 this year.  He was making sure to hit people, and hit them hard.  He was extra noticeable, with red breezers & gloves.

Zach Patterson didn't look out of place.  If he doesn't make this team, and I don't think he does, I'd like to see him get a chance elsewhere.  He'll be an 18 this year, so its now or never.

Alex Overhardt started out rough: getting hit, missing passes, etc.  You could see him get more comfortable shift by shift by shift.  Looked to me to be strictly a set-up man, but ended up with a goal and an assist on the day.

Cody Glass is a guy that I was looking for, and didn't notice at first.  He's on the smaller side, but he's also a 15 this year.  He's the first fruit the opening round of the bantam draft bore for Portland since Nic Petan, so there's some expectations there.  He had some nice driving the net sequences.

Cole Guttman had a good day: 2 goals, and added a shootout goal to boot.  He's a 15 from Los Angles who was an 8th round bantam pick.  Little guy, good hands.

Evan Cusmano is an interesting player.  He's a 17 this year, and has one hell of a beard.  He's good and thick like you'd like a D man to be, which is nice.  I happened to overhear his life story while standing by his family, and he sounds to be a late bloomer of sorts: got stuck as a 4th line forward when he's a D man by trade - once they straightened that out he's playing "30 min a night" according to Mr Cusmano.  Could be a player.

Skyler McKenzie looked bigger to me, and a few people have said the same.  There was a sequence where he got hit hard, got up and hit the first 3 guys he could find.  Ended up with a real nice snipe from the slot and an assist.

It was nice to see the 16 year old version of Carter Czaikowski.  He was the 1st player the 'Hawks drafted that year, even if it was in the 6th round.   Smaller D man, seemed comfortable with the puck.  Looks like he's gonna wear #36 with the 'Hawks this year.

de Champlain had a pretty goal.  Fighting for an overage spot.

Chantz Petruic finished a nice tic-tac-toe sequence with a goal.  He's a 15 from Moose Jaw.

Cederholm looked kind of mean - decked some dude in the slot.  You can always use more of that.  He's also AHL eligible this year.

Josh Hanson was shooting the puck a little bit - could be a good sign of improved puckhandling.  he hit some kid pretty hard, too.

We've got a "Nasty" Mirasty in camp: Donovan Mirasty.  Been playing in Moose Jaw, scored a goal.  Didn't go crazy or anything.  No idea if he's related to Jon "Nasty" Mirasty.

Trace Elson scored on a 2 on 1 - as an overage candidate who Portland drafted in the bantam draft last time around.

12.5% into the #NeelyCup, I'm really high on Brendan De Jong: good size, good wheels, heads up in D zone. He'll be a 16 this year. D man.
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) August 21, 2014

Day 2

 Evan Weinger blocked a tough shot - look like it stung him a bit.  He's a 17 from LA playing with the JR Kings.

Blake Heinrich had a goal.  He didn't really stick out for me much, which probably isn't a big deal.  The season probably hinges on his play as much as anyone outside of Burke.  He was the captain of Sioux City in the USHL last year, so he's legit & a veteran.  This league is a step up, but not as big a difference as you might think.

Colton Veloso had a goal on a penalty shot early, and then scored to tie the game in the last minute.  Not bad.

Nick Heid looked more comfortable in day 2, which is good.  He got beat as the man back on a 2 on 1, in which the other guys scored.  We need a quality season out of him on the D corps to be successful as they want to be.  17 year old rookie.

Tyler Thompson is a big kid, been playing for Omaha.  You always notice the Omaha kids, as their gear is bright orange.  He was banging bodies, mostly in an attempt to get someone to fight him.  No luck there, but that's a role that needs filled.  He's a 17, who the 'Hawks listed.  Minnesota native.

Cole Guttman had another goal.  Makes you wonder what his 15 year is gonna look like - and beyond.

Shane Roulette scored a petty goal.  Could be a gamble betting on this kid.  Fortunately he's not a Russian.

Texeira was flying all weekend - he finished a 2 on 1 goal.  Sky's the limit with him.  This is his draft year.

Bittner was skating well all weekend, and answered a tying goal late with an even later winning goal.  We should see him for 2 more years (I think) - and he might wear out the twine on the nets here in town.

Bjorkstrand looked like he was at 50% effort, and still was toying with guys.  He even played defense, which I wouldn't bother if I was him in this format.  Kid is good.

Josh Hanson still looks better with the puck, but I might just really want that to be the case.  He takes a lot of heat locally, but I think he does everything well except when the puck is on his stick.  I'd like to think that's correctable, and I'm hoping he spent the summer in Alaska shooting pucks at the barn.  Or studying for the 4 or 5 years of school he's got coming post WHL.  Either one.

Connor Beebe had a pretty goal - he's a 15.  That's all I know.

Cody Glass had a decent weekend.  He picked up a goal on a rebound, and was in the slot quite often - which is a good sign.

Speaking of good sign:

@Cody12Glass signs with @pdxwinterhawks and I couldn't be more proud of you! #greatorganization pic.twitter.com/w6dFfKnwCE
— Jeff Glass (@GlassfamilyJeff) August 24, 2014

Alex Overhardt continued to get better.  Had a snipe of a goal, drove the net a few times, and changed my mind about him being a pass-first guy.  I like it.  Recently signed 17 from Denver.  Natural center - which you can never have too many good centermen.

Speaking of Denver centerman - Turgeon seemed to be pretty physical, which is always good.

Schoenborn was flying all weekend - he picked Czaikowski's pocket and went all alone, only to be stopped on the shot.

Trent Lofthouse scored a nifty backhand goal on a penalty shot.  He wants to stay in the 'dub, and his play this weekend backed that up.

JJ Virtanen had a nice goal off a scramble.  I'm surprised a 17 with "Virtanen" on his sweater is still available. 

The real McKenzie scored a scramble goal, as well as hitting guys.  Building up for the 3rd day of camp.....

Lane Veviros scored the late game winning goal.  I'm not sold on him as a 19, but then again if he's one of the top 6 Austrian defenseman, he's about gotta be good enough for your WHL team, right?

Day 3

Back to Skyler McKenzie - took a hit from Cusmano, who broke his visor on the play.  From standing by the Cusmano's, I take it that he broke some sort of equipment every damn day, and they suspected that Peaches was getting sick of it.  They also felt that Peaches was really good & quick, and made it sound like the player was on the hook for things such as a new visor - which I found interesting.   I'd like to think that money is no object to the Portland Winterhawks, but I suppose everyone has a limit.

While "the beard" was between visors, it sure seemed like Heid was out there every other shift, which is great.  See what he's made of.

When Cusmano made it back on the ice, he made a nice home-run pass springing a guy, then blocked a shot in the same shift.  There might be bigger things in store for this guy.

In the quest for an overage spot, Trace Elson had a glorious chance in the slot, in which he shanked the shot.  Turgeon set him up perfectly.  Didn't help his chances there.

Tyson Predinchuk was making plenty of nice plays in his own zone.  Not sure where he fits in, but he needs a regular shift this year.

Shane Roulette had a great sequence where he blocked the defensemans shot just inside the blue line, and turned that into a breakaway goal.  This was late in the game, where it counts......

...Until the real McKenzie ties it up real late, which is exactly what you want your clutch players to do.  Score when it counts.

Next game: Czaikowski scored a nice goal from the blue line.  Gotta love it.

Evan Weinger drove the net hard, and later scored a goal.  He's a 17 from LA.  Keep him in mind.

I think Nick Heid scored a goal, but I never got confirmation.  He's the future of the back end.

McKenzie took a nasty stick to the face.  Stay tuned: it gets good.

"Nasty" Mirasty rode a dude out against the boards, and finished his check.  Just like its supposed to be done.

Reed Morrison, also a 16 - looks somewhat awkard for a kid his size (6'2") at that age.  Not unusual at this level, but you hope he finds himself soon.  Played some games at Christmas last season.

....When the real McKenzie got back on the ice, he was a wrecking ball.......

Jesse Nelson scored a nice scramble goal.

McKenzie finally found the dude that got his stick up:

If you get your stick up on @S_Mckenzie19 - he's gonna find you, stand in there, take a few shots and feed you a steady diet of punches.
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) August 24, 2014

I've gotta think that Skyler McKenzie has won over the hearts of all @pdxwinterhawks fans attending the #NeelyCup this year #WHL
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) August 24, 2014

When the real McKenzie got a hold of the other kid, he stood right in there and took a few punches in order to deliver a bunch of rights, over the top, in what was apparently his first fight.  Dude looked like he knew what he was doing.  For those who saw it live, you've gotta think that McKenzie is crossing into hero status right there.  Fans were really into it.

De Jong continued to look good, as a 16 D man.  Had a good first pass out of the zone, which is not measured by any fancy stat.

Lofthouse threw some nice hits, and set up a goal off the rush.  He wants an overage spot.  Later he buried a backhand goal off the rush.

Veloso threw a big hit on Overhardt, and kept hitting & hitting & hitting.  He wants a regular shift as an undersized 16.

Ollie Bjorkstrand is real good at hockey.

Keegan Iverson had a nasty snipe.  Good wheels all weekend, but didn't have results to show until now. 

Texeira continued to fly, and get rough with guys.   I love it.

Overhardt had a nice chance in front, and couldn't finish.  They'll start going in for him.

Zach Patterson can play.  He's an undersized D man in height, but he's broad like you'd like a D man to be.  He'll be an 18 this year - a signed player for Portland.  He had a fan club in camp: a couple of cute girls, of drinking age.  If he doesn't get a shot here, I'd hope he gets a shot somewhere.

De Jong took a guy into the boards - a 16 from Dallas - in a fairly innocent play.  The other kid had a real hard time getting off the ice, which sucks.   I watched to see how De Jong reacted - he scored a goal.

There was a sequence where Cederholm drove the net, and Veloso stayed back and covered - which is nice.

Ethan Price got stuffed on a penalty shot.  He's from Lincoln.  He's gonna destroy this league this year.  He laid a huge hit right infront of me later - cause that's what they do in the Star City.

Texeira continued to fly - set up an Iverson goal.  Keep it coming.....


Anyday seems like a good time to sign a good 15 goalie:

such an amazing feeling to be apart of the Portland Winterhawks organization. thank you @pdxwinterhawks
— Matt Radomsky (@RadomskyMatt) August 24, 2014

That was one hell of a ride...

Well, that was fun.

During the Mike Johnston era we witnessed a lot of goals & a lot of wins.  The last 4 playoff runs featured more wins (59) than the 3 full seasons prior to his arrival in the Rose City (47).  This team posted a .731 winning percentage in the 5 regular seasons that began with MJ behind the bench.  Pretty unheard of for junior hockey, if not anywhere in modern sport.

Most of us are familiar with the meteoric rise of this franchise back to relevance in the WHL, but here's a great piece about MJ turning this ship around.  It shouldn't be forgotten that the Winterhawks were on the verge of either being relocated or simply folding during the dark ages.  My understanding is the previous owner (who I won't even mention his name here), who was a bartender back east somewhere, fired Ken Hodge and was going to play GM himself.  Ron Robison had to step in & force the team to re-hire Hodge in order to have some sort of hockey-man making decisions.  It was that bad.

Some fans feel that MJ is a better GM than coach, and I lean that way - if only because you have to be better at one or the other by definition.  If you look at the talent he's amassed during his Portland career - its pretty staggering.   Guys like Ryan Johansen (7th round bantam pick), Chase de Leo (9th round bantam pick),  Brendan Leipsic (6th round bantam pick) - etc etc etc.   Many WHL teams can't find a decent Euro at all it seems, and we've seen a steady procession of top shelf import talent come through here.

Johnston would argue otherwise - as he's been coaching as a profession for over 30 years.  Much of coaching is managing the players personalities & mannerisms.  It ain't gonna be easy to balance Sidney Crosby & Evgeni Malkin with your 4th line guys, but its all in the approach.

Its apples and oranges, the NHL & major junior, but think about the attitudes he's saddled up here:  Boychuck, Ross, Rattie, Morrow, Leipsic, Pouliot, etc.  You hear the phase "I'd rather try and tame a tiger than paint stripes on a kitty cat" - but that's a whole damn streak of tigers right there.  Remember what he did with Taylor Jordan as an overage?  Made him into a legit hockey player.  He handled both high-profile defencemen who left school for Portland without distraction.

I've heard that there are serious challenges in Pittsburgh right now: salary cap issues, sky high expectations, lack of identity - things like this.  After the mess that Mike cleaned up here, I'm sure the Penguins will be fine.

I have serious concerns about the future of the Portland Winterhawks.  The next time they drop the puck will be my 10th season living in Portland & following this team.  Its not an exaggeration to say that every ounce of success I've witnessed this team have comes directly from Mike Johnston.  To go from worst-to-first is a wonderful story, but the clock is supposed to strike midnight at some point.  Somehow MJ found ways to simply keep this team on top.  The Winterhawks are still stocked full of top shelf players, after 4 years of long playoff runs.  Completely unheard of at this level.

Its inevitable for this team to fall back to earth, but it seemed almost impossible under the leadership of MJ.  The next guy has some shoes to fill, alright.  We may be destined to experience the cycle of winning / losing / wining / losing that every other team is subject to - which is a day I've dreaded for some time.  Its way more fun winning all those games year after year.

Anybody got Travis Green's number?  I hear his contract is up........

Brendan Leipsic 5 min major spear: you be the judge

In game 5 of the Portland / Kelowna series, Leipsic was given a major penalty for spearing.

Lets look at rule 62:

Rule 62: Spearing

62.1
Spearing - Spearing shall mean stabbing an opponent with the point
of the stick blade, whether contact is made or not.

62.2
Double-minor Penalty - A double-minor penalty
will be imposed on a
player or goalkeeper who spears an opponent and does not make
contact.

62.3
Major Penalty - A major penalty shall be imposed on a player or
goalkeeper who spears an opponent (see 62.5).

62.4
Match Penalty - A match penalty shall be imposed on a player or
goalkeeper who injures an opponent as a result of a spear.

62.5 Game Misconduct Penalty - Whenever a major penalty is assessed
for spearing, a game misconduct penalty must also be imposed.

They don't take spearing lightly, nor should they.  If you swing & miss, its a double minor.  Any spear that actually contacts another player and its an automatic major.  Again, I'm fine with this, but it should go without saying that not all spears are created equal.

In the above video clip of the incident, I left it long with Kelowna's audio feed to illustrate a point: that no one knew that this major had occurred until the penalties went up on the scoreclock.  I'm right there with them - I watched the replay not seeing the spear until I was looking for it.  I'm not sure how the league will look at this, but my rose-garden colored glasses don't think its a big deal.  We shall see.

We've seen some nasty spearing incidents in the last week or so:

Different leagues for sure, but many of us remember Lucic with the Giants.  Played hard as well as partied hard.   Dude just cruises up behind a dude, all nonchalant, and sticks him in the balls.  That's a calculated move - about the worst thing you can do on an ice sheet.  He got slapped with a $5,000 fine, no suspension.  (Lucic made 4.5 million this year, BTW).

Suspend Leipsic?  Time will tell.

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Brendan Burke's numbers in 2014

I finally got around to the show prep I meant to do two episodes ago for Pucklandia: our new podcast (subscribe button here).  While you're at it, follow on Twitter & befriend on Facebook to stay current.

We all know that Burke's been great in 2014, at least post trade deadline.  Some feel its the addition of Corbin Boes, others feel that Mathew Dumba has been the difference.  I feel that its a "tastes great / less filling" kind of debate - and a nice one to have.

What do Burke's numbers look like, you ask?  On January 4th of this year, he was sitting on a 3.22 goals against, and a .900% save percentage.  There's been worse in major junior for sure, but that's not exactly Memorial Cup kind of numbers.

According to the WHL website, his January totals were 1.83 / 0.934 in 8 games - which ain't bad.  February saw him go 2.33 / .912 & March looked like 1.33 / .950 - which you can live with.

If you start with the games after that January 4th point referenced earlier, his totals through the end of the season finished at 1.42 / .950 over a 12 game span, assuming my math is correct.  While not the biggest sample size, it sure seems like Burke's trending in the right direction, and the 4 games in round one demonstrated a 1.75 / .924 - which is fantastic considering how rough his game 1 was.

There's been talk about Portland's goaltending being a question mark.  Looks like its been answered to me.

In defense of the shootout

First off, I don't like the shootout anymore than anyone else.

I do, however, believe its a necessary evil.

I watched 11 years of hockey which included ties.  Ties are terrible, and I don't think that people remember how empty it feels investing 3 hours of your life in a game only to walk away with as if it never happened - there is no winner.  You wanna go back to ties?  No thank you.  The "kissing your sister" quote always stuck with me.

One of the main criticisms of the shootout is that it is a one on one format in the context of a team game, and that's a valid point.  Breakaways are part of the game, but they don't occur in alternating instances of 6+ in the course of a night.

I don't like how we drop down to 4 on 4 for overtime - we just spent 60 minutes of 5 on 5.  If we are so exited about goals, and the 5th player is a detriment to scoring, why do we have him out there for regulation?  Some say the shootout is a gimmick, but what about changing the number of players who are eligible to take the ice, just 'cause its sudden death?  Seems gimmicky to me.

Sure, you see 4 on 4 most nights, but its usually brief and in the context of overlapping penalties, or is the result of coincidental minors.  What percentage of the season is played 4 on 4?  If you play 3 minutes of 4 on 4 per night, that's 5% of the game.  Seems about as far from regular gameplay as a series of penalty shots, if you ask me.

In life, as in outside hockey, I'm big into the concept that if you are critical of X, and argue that it needs to go away, then you have to present an alternative in order to do so.  I don't like paying taxes:  no one does.  The alternative to all of us paying no taxes means no roads to drive on, firemen to do their thing, or law enforcement to prevent us from being robbed.  That's not a realistic alternative.

So we've established that ties aren't acceptable, but we don't like the shootout.  Lets look at the alternatives.  You see 3 on 3 thrown out there - often in an unlimited format.  Again, I don't like ditching one player for minutes 60 through 65 - then you really wanna blow the horn and leave another guy on the bench for an additional 5 minutes?  The 3 on 3 advocates among us don't feel that its gimmicky, yet in the 20 years I've been watching the game I've never seen 3 on 3 play, yet I've seen quite a few penalty shots.

What would football look like if you took 40% of the players off the field in an effort to induce a score?  In the 10th inning of a ball game you take the shortstop, 3rd baseman, and left fielder off - in an effort to keep it a team game: would we accept that?  We're already benching the shortstop, which I think is bad enough.

What are you gonna do if no one scores when its 3 on 3?  Aren't you getting dangerously close to 1 on 1 there?  I've heard one staunch shootout critic throw out an idea of a series of alternating 2-on-1's, which satisfies my criteria of having an alternative to suggest.  I'm not sure if I like that idea, but its at least something to think about.

As an American voter, I've learned to live with a lesser of two evils approach, which is why I back virtually anything that gets us away from ties.  Now, if you want to be critical of the "loser point" - you'll get more traction with that argument, in my opinion.  Gregg Drinnan will point out that 17 out of the 22 WHL teams have a .500 or better record right now, which seems statistically impossible.

We just witnessed an Olympic tournament where a regulation win was worth 3 points, an OT win 2, and an extra time loss earned a single point.  Personally, I could get behind a points system like this, as it incentivizes winning in regulation, yet doesn't strip you of a potential tie point.  This system seems to work well in MLS, which is prone to ties.

Like I said, I don't like the current system any more than you do - but I'll take it over one with ties.  I'd take a coin flip VS a tie.  I would prefer that both captains engage in a duel at center ice before I see another tie.

If you have any better ideas, I'd love to hear 'em.  In the meantime, I'm fine with a series of penalty shots and someone walking out of the rink with a "W".

Mike Johnston: good coach?

This is a developmental league.  That goes for players as well as coaches, officials, equipment managers, etc.  I believe this is Mike Johnston's first head coaching gig - at least at a significant level of hockey.  From time to time you hear some criticisms of his work:

 

On a related note, here's an exchange between myself and Guy Flaming (regarding the 2014 WJC):

Brent Sutter is WAAAAYYY smarter than I am but I question having Dumba and Pouliot paired. Need at least one d-man that can play defence.
— Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) December 20, 2013

@TPS_Guy Pouliot has played a more well rounded game this season, partially out of necessity. Best D man = more responsibility in own end
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) December 20, 2013

@hawkeyblog You see him more than I do, I'm sure, but that was not evident in Edmonton or the WHL/Russia game.
— Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) December 20, 2013

@hawkeyblog I take part of that back, he was actually very good in Edmonton last month.
— Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) December 20, 2013

@TPS_Guy could also be wishful thinking / confirmation bias on my part, but he's been better - and playing a ton #whl #wjc
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) December 20, 2013

Here's an article by Daniel Nugent-Bowman about Pouliot playing on the top paring for Team Canada at the World Juniors:

Ekblad quietly watches how Pouliot approaches drills in practices or how he refocuses between shifts.

“You have to remember, there’s mentorship going on, but it’s going on in subtle ways,” said McGill, who works with Canada’s defencemen. “It’s not always verbal communication.” 

The guidance is paying off.

Hockeys future has a video interview with  Pouliot during the WJC tournament, which partially consists of asking him about some of the other talented kids we've been fortunate enough to see play here over the last several years.

Point being is that #51 looks to be erasing some of the criticisms of his play in the D zone, as well as the rap they don't coach that way in this town.  I'm writing this the day after Brendan Burke had a 174 minute shutout streak come to an end - and he's not doing that on his own, now is he?

Sometimes you hear things about star forwards, such as Nino Niederreiter & Ryan Johansen:

Then, on the same day, NHL.com ran stories about Johansen rounding into form, as well as Nino scoring a nasty OT goal.  With those two high draft picks, you could argue that MJ did too good of a job.  

The Islanders & Blue Jackets thought both players were NHL ready for their 19 year old seasons, yet didn't play them in significant roles, which is about the worst thing you can do to a young hockey player.  There's reasons that both those teams have struggled for a long time, and these examples demonstrate two reasons why.

Mike Johnston has posted winning percentages of .632, .715, .708 in his first 3 full seasons.  He's followed that up with an .820 in his partial season (suspension) - the team finished with an .812 & a league championship.  So far this season they're putting up .731.  MJ can build & coach teams that win games.

In his first full season they got out of the first round - which hadn't happened much in the last few years here.  The next 2 seasons they lost in the finals before hoisting the Ed cup.  In a developmental league, he's been getting better every year to this point.  There may have been issues developing the right culture in his 2nd year of coaching teenagers at an elite level - that's entirely possible.  

Most of the players that work with him at this point he's had for their entire junior careers,  which you'd think would allow him to instill the values he wants them to live by.  He's presumably developed a better balance of letting the kids run, yet keeping them under the team's umbrella.  Being a peer, friend, and authority figure.  When to crack the whip, when to build the player back up.  Coaching these high end players at such a tricky stage of their lives has to be more complicated than you or I could ever understand.

If we judge WHL coaches by how their players fare in the NHL, that would make Jim Hiller or Don Nachbar look pretty poor , when I think most regard them as quality coaches.  

I'm buying what MJ is selling.

Kozun Thinks Seattle Can Win Memorial Cup

Hey, you gotta believe in yourself, especially if your an athlete at an elite level.  Taran Kozon does.

Kozun, though, thinks his new team is the one to beat.

“I think we have a really good contender for the Memorial Cup,” Kozun said. “I think we can go far. If a team has to play us seven games, I don’t think they can keep up with us. We have just the size and the grit and the offensive ability.

“It’s really ours to lose, I think.”

Seems reasonable - especially coming from a goalie with all the playoff experience that Kozon has, which is 0 games played, 0 minutes and a 0.00 GAA.  His backup has similar numbers.  Kozon is currently 24-25 for his carer, and you only gotta be 4 games over .500 in the playoffs to hoist the cup.

They have strong leadership behind the bench, as Steve Konowalchuk has earned a 81-99-17 record behind the Thunderbirds bench, as well as a 3-4 playoff record.  He's also known for putting up 92 points for the Winterhawks in 1991, and taking the Avalanche to the second round in 2004.

The Thunderbirds have traditionally been a successful franchise - over the last 10 seasons they've appeared in 9 playoff series - with 3 series victories.  Juggernaut.

Kono is confident as well:

A confident Thunderbirds team could be in the the right position — playing its best hockey potentially heading into the tournament just weeks away.

“I know the guys are excited, we’re putting ourselves in position. We definitely want to battle for that home ice (advantage) in the first round and Portland isn’t out of our sights,” said Konowalchuk. “We have a goal and we believe we can do it.”

 Shouldn't be a big deal.  Seattle is 3-5 against Portland this year, which is pretty good considering they have lost something like 40 of those games over the last 4 seasons. (Portland is 5-1-2 vs SEA this year).  All Seattle needs to to is sweep the last 4 games vs Portland, and they should have a shot at that division title.

All that's left is to tie up a couple loose ends, like getting through the 'Hawks (0.726 winning %), the Rockets (0.837) and then either the Oil Kings (0.735) or Hitmen (0.673).  Kind of reminds me of when Brashear would wipe his hands after taking care of business.  The bigger they come, the harder they fall, right?

Sounds like Seattle fans should be shopping for tickets to London, if you ask me.

When is losing your best player to suspension a good thing?

photo: Jimmy Budinski

Many of us were pretty frustrated when Brendan Leipsic got suspended.  I was one of them:

@jleipsic8 @bleipsic we weren't using him for anything
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) January 1, 2014

Its one thing for the highest scoring team in the WHL to lose a guy off of the top line - the key to this was the timing of it, with 3 other top players overseas at the time.  The Winterhawks went 2-5 over the 7 games that Leipsic was suspended.  Of course, they were short other players simultaneously, but I would argue that only magnifies the importance of #28 in the lineup.

Its unclear if the 'Hawks could have caught Kelowna anyway, but those two head to head games really hurt - those are generally referred to as "4 point games" - so it was an 8 point weekend.  You could look at it like this suspension + WJC may have cost home ice advantage, should the 'Hawks face the Rockets.

I haven't seen this expressed elsewhere, but its my opinion that Leipsic not getting the call from Team Canada contributed directly to his suspension.  For a guy who led the WHL in scoring last year, and had a good playoff run - you had to expect his 19 year to be a big one.  The Predators were high on him in camp this year.  It seemed to me when the WJC lists came out with no #28 - that his game changed, and we saw more of the Leipsic who's more interested in putting guys through the glass than pucks in the net.

The game in Red Deer, in front of Canada coach Brent Sutter, Leipsic was particularly ornery.  Scored 2 goals, 1 assist, +1, #1st star - but the play that sticks out is he threw a serious hit right at the buzzer.  One of those unnecessary plays that reeked like frustration to me.


Dylan Bumbarger has been known to throw truth bricks:

To say something obvious: 28 has to cut that out if he wants a career beyond the Central Hockey League. That was rumored to be a reason he wasn't picked to go to camp with Team Canada, as well.

So we're watching the 'Hawks during this stretch, and they're getting shelled.  The players are frustrated, the fans are frustrated, and I've gotta think that Leipsic is frustrated.

I wonder if this game was as difficult for Leipsic as it was for the rest of us? #whl
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) January 1, 2014

If the purpose of punishment is to alter behavioral patterns, than lets hope this discipline was successful.  Those 24 days between games presented a lengthy opportunity for self reflection, as well as influence from the 'Hawks & Predators brass.

The results have been impressive: in 8 games post suspension he's potted 8 goals, 10 assists, and is +13.  Sure, he's picked up 14 PIM in that stretch, but nothing too serious.  He's the kind of guy who needs to play "on the edge" to be successful, and he appears to have rediscovered where that edge is.

Often times I make the point that there are penalties worth taking, regardless of the result.  If your goalie gets ran, and you take a penalty roughing the guy up, thats fine.  Even if they score on the powerplay, that's still fine.  Even if it costs you the game (once in a while), you can live with it.  You can't just let guys take liberties.

We may look at this 2-5 stretch as the best thing that could have happened to this 'Hawks team.  It sure looks like that time out of the lineup has refocused Leipsic for the stretch run.  He just may have a little extra gas in the tank for a long playoff run, too.

Time will tell.

Some play outside the rules, and some Playfair

 Things have been interesting for Jackson Playfair recently.  First, he gets traded from the Spokane Chiefs to their mortal enemies the Tri-City Americans.  Somewhere in the midst of this he found himself with some Washington companionship, drawing the ire of his Girlfriend of 6 months:  Tieja MacLaughlin.  The story is that she got pissed off and traveled 500 miles to confront him about things, and apparently death threats were involved.

This is a heavy incident.  As we've discussed, its only a game - Ilya Bryzgalov agrees.  Off the ice there is life, and these players deal with things that we all have to go through, and incidents like this happen sometimes.  While I was digesting this story today, I listened to this piece about domestic violence, and it seems to be a related issue in my book.

I'm with Playfair on this one.  Every relationship is complicated, and no one is 100% right/wrong, but whatever his shortcomings are don't warrant threats of any kind - particularly death threats.  There's a place for violence, and then there is real life.

Another related issue is the form of domestic violence where the man is the victim.  We have nothing to lead us to believe this was a part of this story, but it is part of many men's lives - which is an issue.  A online resource for these men had this to say:

While the majority of domestic violence victims are women, abuse of men happens far more often than you'd probably expect. Typically, men are physically stronger than women but that doesn't necessarily make it easier to escape the violence or the relationship. An abused man faces a shortage of resources, skepticism from police, and major legal obstacles, especially when it comes to gaining custody of his children from an abusive mother. No matter your age, occupation, or sexual orientation, though, you can overcome these challenges and escape the abuse.

Again, the vast majority of domestic violence victims are women, which generally forms our views of how to approach this societal cancer.  However many men are subject to similar violence.  More often than not females can carry out abuse without repercussions: they can hit the man all they want, as any physical retaliation generally lands the man in jail.  He-say-she-say in a fistfight leaves the man the guilty party.

During my early 20's I lived in Kansas City, MO: which is where I discovered hockey outside of the NHL.  The KC Blades  taught me the joy of attending games.  There weren't a whole hell of a lot of highlights from those seasons of the Blades, but I was fortunate enough to be in the barn for this:

I was accompanied to many games during that period of my life by a pretty blonde from Raytown, MO (the setting of Mama's Family).  This woman had a drinking problem.  Addictions of any type are difficult to live with, and this one tended to morph into violence on occasion.  In cases like this, the offender is also a victim, but they hold the keys to both of the issues at hand.  The 4 years I spent with this woman were the best of times & the worst of times - you could say it was "day to day".

Many domestic abuse victims have dealt with much more than I have, but I lived that way for too damn long.  Hopefully I learned from those experiences, and have been fortunate enough to not have those issues pop back up in my life.  I do have those memories still, and I have a soft spot for men with similar stories.  

My advice to Playfair would be to do just what he did, and get the law involved.  I assume he went to his team as well, and I hope they did what they could to support him.  We ask so much out of these teenagers:  we hold them up on a pedestal, ask them to entertain us, to bleed for us. They have a lot on their plate as is - guys like this don't need distractions like this to deal with, but sometimes they do.

My advice to you is to take these things seriously.  Stalking, violence, victims male & female - they all need our support.  If you find yourself in one of these situations, get some help.  Life is too short to live in those conditions.  There are resources out there for you, and those of us who are fortunate to avoid those situations should be a resource for the less fortunate among us.  Together we can fight back - in the right way.

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Matt Dumba, Anton Cederholm, and fighting

 

That sequence is why there is fighting in hockey.  This is a contact sport, played at 35 MPH, with a weapon.  There has to be a release valve, or else things will completely boil over.  I think we all understand that you cannot always count on the officials to administer justice properly - often times the game has to self police.

This was Mathew Dumba's debut in a Portland sweater.   As the video clearly shows, Eberle comes in high on Dumba, as is demonstrated by the assessment of a 2 minute minor.  Cederholm stands in for his newest teamate - he holds Eberle accountable for his actions.

Some would argue that simply taking the powerplay is the right move, but do you really want to leave these things in the hands of the referees?   There are players better suited for fisticuffs than Cederholm, but when you're on the ice & the first man there sometimes you've gotta get in there.

In this instance, Eberle got 2 for the initial hit, and Cederholm picked up an extra 2 + 10 for instating, negating the powerplay & leaving the 'Hawks short a defenseman for a 17 minute stretch of the game.  There were real consequences for Cederholm's actions there, and I'm just fine with that.  There are plenty of times that you will "invest" a 2 minute minor (or worse) to send a message - in this case the message is not to take cheap shots at our new star defenseman.

Even in instances where you give up a powerplay goal - that's still a better price to pay than allowing some goons to take runs at your guys.  

Another piece of this puzzle is these two defencemen probably don't even know each others names yet - and in Dumba's 1st game in Portland he sees his new family going to bat for him.  These occurrences often times go a long way in team building - helping to jell as a group.  That's pretty important this time of year.

Welcome Blake Heinrich!

@KellyFriesen @hawkeyblog how many cell phones did that cost?
— Michael Kinsman (@mhksports) January 13, 2014

The Winterhawks have signed Blake Heinrich. This is good news.

He was a 12th round bantam pick for Portland, and has blossomed into a 5th round NHL draft pick for the Washington Capitals.  He's an 18 this year, wearing the "C" for the Sioux City Musketeers, who play in the USHL. I grew up in USHL country, and have a team in my hometown.  This is a "junior A" league: these are mostly American kids, who are intent on NCAA scholarships. 

Its a complicated dance between these junior clubs and the college teams, trying to fill open NCAA spots with players ready to move up.  Sometimes the timing gets jumbled, and guys go the major junior route - that's what happened to Mac Carruth, for example.

The 'Hawks are loosing their top 3 defenseman after this year (much like last year) - Derrick Pouliot, Mathew Dumba, and Garrett Haar will all be playing pro next season.  Heinrich will fill in one of these spots, and by all accounts he will be a valuable addition.

Mike Johnston has had success finding players from non-traditional sources, and this qualifies as such.  If one looks at this like an offseason trade for a 19 D man, who's been drafted by an NHL team - those players usually command a high price. 

The only comparable I was able to find from this year (I don't have all damn day to look) is a player we just saw: Travis Brown, who the Victoria Royals just brought in from Moose Jaw.  He's a 19, and a 5th round Blackhawks pick.  The Royals gave up two 3rd round picks, and a 15 year old prospect who was also a 3rd round pick.  Basically three 3rds, with one of them being retroactive.

If that's the going rate for that kind of player, having one fall in your lap is pretty nice.  I believe the Caps don't have to sign him for 2 years, meaning that it is likely he's back as an overage - which sweetens the pot for Portland.  If you consider the difference from a 5th round NHL pick and the 7th overall pick of the 1st round - three 2nd's for Dumba looks pretty good in comparison, doesn't it?

19-year-old Travis Brown

19-year-old Travis Brown

Caps blog Russian Machine Never Breaks:

With the 144th pick in the draft the Capitals selected defenseman Blake Heinrich from Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

He’s small — 5-foot-10, 194 pounds — but Heinrich brings an imposing physical presence to the game. He doesn’t shy away from anything: he hits hard, trash talks, participates in the scrums, and cleans the crease when he needs to. He’s a guy who is a pain to play against. That resulted in 110 PIM last year in the USHL, third among the players under 18. It also earned him a spot as the 81st best North American skater according to NHL Central Scouting.

He’s not a liability in other areas of the game either. According to Future Considerations, who ranked him 76th, his footwork could use some work, but it’s far from horrible. A smart defender, he takes few chances breaking out of the zone. Heinrich does a good job making simple, effective defensive plays. He was also seventh in points among U18 defenseman in USHL, which shows he can play some offense as well.

Minnesota Hockey Prospects:

Blake Heinrich plays each and every shift with a physical nastiness. The University of Minnesota Duluth commit is a strong and durable defenseman that bull rushes opponents, forcing turnovers in the process. Heinrich made a seamless transition to the USHL, having a successful rookie season with Sioux City. Heinrich supplied a gritty defensive game while chipping in 3 goals, 17 assists, and 110 penalty minutes in 42 games played.

Heinrich is not big for a defenseman, (5’11-190) but what he lacks in height, he makes up for in strength. The former Hill-Murray star has good mobility and does an exceptional job at reading the play in front of him. Heinrich never gives the impression that he is guessing on a play as he has a natural instinct to be in the right place at the right time. An area of Heinrich’s game that needs improvement is his puck control skills. Advancement in this capacity would round out Heinrich’s offensive game and make him a complete player.

Overall Heinrich is a blue-collar worker on the ice that is a joy to watch thanks to his ability to play the body. Heinrich could be more offensive, but he’s a good coverage defender that gives very little space to opposing forwards. His playing style is similar to Dennis Seidenberg of the Boston Bruins.

Chris Dilks pre-draft report:

 As far as NHL Draft narratives go, Blake Heinrich's is pretty boring. There were no big swings in his ranking by NHL Central Scouting. He started the year as a 'B' ranked player, was ranked 72nd at the mid-term, and ended the year at 81st in the final ranking. He plays a quiet, steady, defensive style that doesn't draw a lot of attention. He isn't unnaturally big. But don't confuse a lack of pre-draft hype for a lack of talent.

 His coming out party, so to speak, was the 2012 Minnesota State High School Tournament, where Heinrich, who came into the season as the only defenseman on his Hill-Murray team with any varsity hockey experience, helped carry his team to the state championship final with a masterful defensive performance. Over the summer, he made a commitment to play his college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, and decided to forgo his senior year at Hill-Murray to play his draft year with the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

Rinkside Update: Blake Heinrich 8/2/13

The USHL has a Top Prospects Game, and Heinrich played in it one year ago: