Showing posts with label Mike Johnston. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Johnston. Show all posts

Thursday, November 12, 2015

2015-16: 20 game mark

Mike Johnston always said something along the lines of  "You know what kind of team you have after 20 games...." - around here we take what MJ says pretty seriously.

Its unclear what this Winterhawks team is to this point, which is 18 games in as of this writing.  This is a team that has started slow for as long as I've been watching them - last season they were 8-11-3 at this point last season.  In fact, they didn't reach .500 until (American) Thanksgiving - yet they tied Everett in wins while attempting to win the US Division.

I wrote about their slow start in 2013-14: a season where they lost Game 7 of the WHL Final.

This team sits at 8-9 currently.  They've scored 5 goals in 2 of those losses.  On two occasions they won the game despite only putting up 2 goals.  Adin Hill has recorded 3 shutouts on the young season, but they were shut out once by Prince Albert.

They've shown flashes of brilliance, and can't get out of their own way at times.  Kelowna has been a "measuring stick" game over the last few years - this year is no exception.  Taking a 3-2 lead mid-3rd period is a sign of good things to come.  Turning that lead into a 5-3 deficit over an 8 minute span is a problem.  Jumping out to a 3-0 lead after 20 minutes the next night: sure seems like the proper adjustments were made.  However, back to back periods of giving up 4 goals spoiled that promising start.

Entering the Kelowna weekend Hill's GAA was right at 2.00, for a .500 team.  A junior team giving up 2 goals a game should be clipping along at .750 - or better.  This is a team that's scored 5 goals in 8 games so far - pretty much half the games they've played so far.

It might be easy as they're just inconsistent so far.  All junior teams are, right?


The "eye test" is that their struggles are as simple as a handful defensive breakdowns at the wrong time, which I don't have a good way to quantify or break down here.



One issue I have that is demonstrable is Paul Bittner.  I've been really high on him since he was a 15 - especially when he potted those 4 consecutive game winning goals during tournament time.  He ended up with 12 goals in 45 games that season - which projects out to 19 goals in a full 72 game season.  Pretty damn good for a 16 with limited ice time.

Currently Paul is sitting on 4 goals - a 17 goal pace for a full season.  That's just not good enough for a guy that Portland fans are counting on to deliver.  Of course, he lost both of his linemates.  There's a whole new set of expectations.  He'll improve.

The flip side is Team Captain Dominic Turgeon.  I'd heard some folks expressing they felt that Turgeon has a 40 goal season in his sights - which is pretty much the rate he's been shooting so far.  Can he maintain this pace?

Guys like Shoenborn & Iverson are about where a lot of us thought they'd be.  I feel there's a higher level both guys can get to, and if this team wants to do some damage they will both have to.

If they can marry the periods where they play lights out defense with the instances where they demonstrate all that firepower - then they're back in business.  They've shown the ability to play both ends of the ice at an elite level - but not game in & game out yet.

Gregg Drinnan says the season starts at Christmas.  The Los Angles Kings model - take the regular season off & get hot in the playoffs - could be applicable in a conference where only 2 teams miss the playoffs, but most Portland fans would rather they just got their shit together.


Sunday, August 24, 2014

Neely Cup: 2014-15 training camp






Day 1


First off, I like Brendon De Jong.  He's big: 6'4", and like most folks I fall in love with a D man built like that.  Looks like he's got good wheels, and keeps his head up in his own end reading the play.  Looked impressive to me, in a position of need.

Oliver Bjorkstrand is good at hockey.  Scored, toyed with people.

Was watching Nick Heid closely.  He's not as big as I'd like, but looked to be a smooth skater.

Blake Heinrich was also smaller than I'd hoped for.  Didn't notice him much.  5th round Capitals pick a year ago.

Schoenborn was flying around, and scored a goal.  There was a sequence where someone hit him hard, he got up and took a number, and gave it right back same shift.

Bittner was getting up and down the ice in a hurry.  Scored two goals:  a backhander and a snipe going in all alone.  There's first round NHL draft talk for him this year, and I'm with 'em.

Brendan Burke remembered to bring his glove hand back to town.

Predinchuk looked pretty good.  Several times I had to look up who "15 in grey" was.  Good wheels.

Trent Lofthouse looked like he's been around the block.  Trying to make his case for an overage spot.

Jack Flaman: he'd be a 17 this year.  He was making sure to hit people, and hit them hard.  He was extra noticeable, with red breezers & gloves.

Zach Patterson didn't look out of place.  If he doesn't make this team, and I don't think he does, I'd like to see him get a chance elsewhere.  He'll be an 18 this year, so its now or never.

Alex Overhardt started out rough: getting hit, missing passes, etc.  You could see him get more comfortable shift by shift by shift.  Looked to me to be strictly a set-up man, but ended up with a goal and an assist on the day.

Cody Glass is a guy that I was looking for, and didn't notice at first.  He's on the smaller side, but he's also a 15 this year.  He's the first fruit the opening round of the bantam draft bore for Portland since Nic Petan, so there's some expectations there.  He had some nice driving the net sequences.

Cole Guttman had a good day: 2 goals, and added a shootout goal to boot.  He's a 15 from Los Angles who was an 8th round bantam pick.  Little guy, good hands.

Evan Cusmano is an interesting player.  He's a 17 this year, and has one hell of a beard.  He's good and thick like you'd like a D man to be, which is nice.  I happened to overhear his life story while standing by his family, and he sounds to be a late bloomer of sorts: got stuck as a 4th line forward when he's a D man by trade - once they straightened that out he's playing "30 min a night" according to Mr Cusmano.  Could be a player.

Skyler McKenzie looked bigger to me, and a few people have said the same.  There was a sequence where he got hit hard, got up and hit the first 3 guys he could find.  Ended up with a real nice snipe from the slot and an assist.

It was nice to see the 16 year old version of Carter Czaikowski.  He was the 1st player the 'Hawks drafted that year, even if it was in the 6th round.   Smaller D man, seemed comfortable with the puck.  Looks like he's gonna wear #36 with the 'Hawks this year.

de Champlain had a pretty goal.  Fighting for an overage spot.

Chantz Petruic finished a nice tic-tac-toe sequence with a goal.  He's a 15 from Moose Jaw.

Cederholm looked kind of mean - decked some dude in the slot.  You can always use more of that.  He's also AHL eligible this year.

Josh Hanson was shooting the puck a little bit - could be a good sign of improved puckhandling.  he hit some kid pretty hard, too.

We've got a "Nasty" Mirasty in camp: Donovan Mirasty.  Been playing in Moose Jaw, scored a goal.  Didn't go crazy or anything.  No idea if he's related to Jon "Nasty" Mirasty.

Trace Elson scored on a 2 on 1 - as an overage candidate who Portland drafted in the bantam draft last time around.


Day 2

 Evan Weinger blocked a tough shot - look like it stung him a bit.  He's a 17 from LA playing with the JR Kings.

Blake Heinrich had a goal.  He didn't really stick out for me much, which probably isn't a big deal.  The season probably hinges on his play as much as anyone outside of Burke.  He was the captain of Sioux City in the USHL last year, so he's legit & a veteran.  This league is a step up, but not as big a difference as you might think.

Colton Veloso had a goal on a penalty shot early, and then scored to tie the game in the last minute.  Not bad.

Nick Heid looked more comfortable in day 2, which is good.  He got beat as the man back on a 2 on 1, in which the other guys scored.  We need a quality season out of him on the D corps to be successful as they want to be.  17 year old rookie.

Tyler Thompson is a big kid, been playing for Omaha.  You always notice the Omaha kids, as their gear is bright orange.  He was banging bodies, mostly in an attempt to get someone to fight him.  No luck there, but that's a role that needs filled.  He's a 17, who the 'Hawks listed.  Minnesota native.

Cole Guttman had another goal.  Makes you wonder what his 15 year is gonna look like - and beyond.

Shane Roulette scored a petty goal.  Could be a gamble betting on this kid.  Fortunately he's not a Russian.

Texeira was flying all weekend - he finished a 2 on 1 goal.  Sky's the limit with him.  This is his draft year.

Bittner was skating well all weekend, and answered a tying goal late with an even later winning goal.  We should see him for 2 more years (I think) - and he might wear out the twine on the nets here in town.

Bjorkstrand looked like he was at 50% effort, and still was toying with guys.  He even played defense, which I wouldn't bother if I was him in this format.  Kid is good.

Josh Hanson still looks better with the puck, but I might just really want that to be the case.  He takes a lot of heat locally, but I think he does everything well except when the puck is on his stick.  I'd like to think that's correctable, and I'm hoping he spent the summer in Alaska shooting pucks at the barn.  Or studying for the 4 or 5 years of school he's got coming post WHL.  Either one.

Connor Beebe had a pretty goal - he's a 15.  That's all I know.

Cody Glass had a decent weekend.  He picked up a goal on a rebound, and was in the slot quite often - which is a good sign.

Speaking of good sign:


Alex Overhardt continued to get better.  Had a snipe of a goal, drove the net a few times, and changed my mind about him being a pass-first guy.  I like it.  Recently signed 17 from Denver.  Natural center - which you can never have too many good centermen.

Speaking of Denver centerman - Turgeon seemed to be pretty physical, which is always good.

Schoenborn was flying all weekend - he picked Czaikowski's pocket and went all alone, only to be stopped on the shot.

Trent Lofthouse scored a nifty backhand goal on a penalty shot.  He wants to stay in the 'dub, and his play this weekend backed that up.

JJ Virtanen had a nice goal off a scramble.  I'm surprised a 17 with "Virtanen" on his sweater is still available. 

The real McKenzie scored a scramble goal, as well as hitting guys.  Building up for the 3rd day of camp.....

Lane Veviros scored the late game winning goal.  I'm not sold on him as a 19, but then again if he's one of the top 6 Austrian defenseman, he's about gotta be good enough for your WHL team, right?

Day 3

Back to Skyler McKenzie - took a hit from Cusmano, who broke his visor on the play.  From standing by the Cusmano's, I take it that he broke some sort of equipment every damn day, and they suspected that Peaches was getting sick of it.  They also felt that Peaches was really good & quick, and made it sound like the player was on the hook for things such as a new visor - which I found interesting.   I'd like to think that money is no object to the Portland Winterhawks, but I suppose everyone has a limit.

While "the beard" was between visors, it sure seemed like Heid was out there every other shift, which is great.  See what he's made of.

When Cusmano made it back on the ice, he made a nice home-run pass springing a guy, then blocked a shot in the same shift.  There might be bigger things in store for this guy.

In the quest for an overage spot, Trace Elson had a glorious chance in the slot, in which he shanked the shot.  Turgeon set him up perfectly.  Didn't help his chances there.

Tyson Predinchuk was making plenty of nice plays in his own zone.  Not sure where he fits in, but he needs a regular shift this year.

Shane Roulette had a great sequence where he blocked the defensemans shot just inside the blue line, and turned that into a breakaway goal.  This was late in the game, where it counts......

...Until the real McKenzie ties it up real late, which is exactly what you want your clutch players to do.  Score when it counts.

Next game: Czaikowski scored a nice goal from the blue line.  Gotta love it.

Evan Weinger drove the net hard, and later scored a goal.  He's a 17 from LA.  Keep him in mind.

I think Nick Heid scored a goal, but I never got confirmation.  He's the future of the back end.

McKenzie took a nasty stick to the face.  Stay tuned: it gets good.

"Nasty" Mirasty rode a dude out against the boards, and finished his check.  Just like its supposed to be done.

Reed Morrison, also a 16 - looks somewhat awkard for a kid his size (6'2") at that age.  Not unusual at this level, but you hope he finds himself soon.  Played some games at Christmas last season.

....When the real McKenzie got back on the ice, he was a wrecking ball.......

Jesse Nelson scored a nice scramble goal.

McKenzie finally found the dude that got his stick up:





When the real McKenzie got a hold of the other kid, he stood right in there and took a few punches in order to deliver a bunch of rights, over the top, in what was apparently his first fight.  Dude looked like he knew what he was doing.  For those who saw it live, you've gotta think that McKenzie is crossing into hero status right there.  Fans were really into it.

De Jong continued to look good, as a 16 D man.  Had a good first pass out of the zone, which is not measured by any fancy stat.

Lofthouse threw some nice hits, and set up a goal off the rush.  He wants an overage spot.  Later he buried a backhand goal off the rush.

Veloso threw a big hit on Overhardt, and kept hitting & hitting & hitting.  He wants a regular shift as an undersized 16.

Ollie Bjorkstrand is real good at hockey.

Keegan Iverson had a nasty snipe.  Good wheels all weekend, but didn't have results to show until now. 

Texeira continued to fly, and get rough with guys.   I love it.

Overhardt had a nice chance in front, and couldn't finish.  They'll start going in for him.

Zach Patterson can play.  He's an undersized D man in height, but he's broad like you'd like a D man to be.  He'll be an 18 this year - a signed player for Portland.  He had a fan club in camp: a couple of cute girls, of drinking age.  If he doesn't get a shot here, I'd hope he gets a shot somewhere.

De Jong took a guy into the boards - a 16 from Dallas - in a fairly innocent play.  The other kid had a real hard time getting off the ice, which sucks.   I watched to see how De Jong reacted - he scored a goal.

There was a sequence where Cederholm drove the net, and Veloso stayed back and covered - which is nice.

Ethan Price got stuffed on a penalty shot.  He's from Lincoln.  He's gonna destroy this league this year.  He laid a huge hit right infront of me later - cause that's what they do in the Star City.

Texeira continued to fly - set up an Iverson goal.  Keep it coming.....


Anyday seems like a good time to sign a good 15 goalie:






Wednesday, June 25, 2014

That was one hell of a ride...



Well, that was fun.

During the Mike Johnston era we witnessed a lot of goals & a lot of wins.  The last 4 playoff runs featured more wins (59) than the 3 full seasons prior to his arrival in the Rose City (47).  This team posted a .731 winning percentage in the 5 regular seasons that began with MJ behind the bench.  Pretty unheard of for junior hockey, if not anywhere in modern sport.

Most of us are familiar with the meteoric rise of this franchise back to relevance in the WHL, but here's a great piece about MJ turning this ship around.  It shouldn't be forgotten that the Winterhawks were on the verge of either being relocated or simply folding during the dark ages.  My understanding is the previous owner (who I won't even mention his name here), who was a bartender back east somewhere, fired Ken Hodge and was going to play GM himself.  Ron Robison had to step in & force the team to re-hire Hodge in order to have some sort of hockey-man making decisions.  It was that bad.

Some fans feel that MJ is a better GM than coach, and I lean that way - if only because you have to be better at one or the other by definition.  If you look at the talent he's amassed during his Portland career - its pretty staggering.   Guys like Ryan Johansen (7th round bantam pick), Chase de Leo (9th round bantam pick),  Brendan Leipsic (6th round bantam pick) - etc etc etc.   Many WHL teams can't find a decent Euro at all it seems, and we've seen a steady procession of top shelf import talent come through here.

Johnston would argue otherwise - as he's been coaching as a profession for over 30 years.  Much of coaching is managing the players personalities & mannerisms.  It ain't gonna be easy to balance Sidney Crosby & Evgeni Malkin with your 4th line guys, but its all in the approach.

Its apples and oranges, the NHL & major junior, but think about the attitudes he's saddled up here:  Boychuck, Ross, Rattie, Morrow, Leipsic, Pouliot, etc.  You hear the phase "I'd rather try and tame a tiger than paint stripes on a kitty cat" - but that's a whole damn streak of tigers right there.  Remember what he did with Taylor Jordan as an overage?  Made him into a legit hockey player.  He handled both high-profile defencemen who left school for Portland without distraction.

I've heard that there are serious challenges in Pittsburgh right now: salary cap issues, sky high expectations, lack of identity - things like this.  After the mess that Mike cleaned up here, I'm sure the Penguins will be fine.

I have serious concerns about the future of the Portland Winterhawks.  The next time they drop the puck will be my 10th season living in Portland & following this team.  Its not an exaggeration to say that every ounce of success I've witnessed this team have comes directly from Mike Johnston.  To go from worst-to-first is a wonderful story, but the clock is supposed to strike midnight at some point.  Somehow MJ found ways to simply keep this team on top.  The Winterhawks are still stocked full of top shelf players, after 4 years of long playoff runs.  Completely unheard of at this level.

Its inevitable for this team to fall back to earth, but it seemed almost impossible under the leadership of MJ.  The next guy has some shoes to fill, alright.  We may be destined to experience the cycle of winning / losing / wining / losing that every other team is subject to - which is a day I've dreaded for some time.  Its way more fun winning all those games year after year.

Anybody got Travis Green's number?  I hear his contract is up........



Saturday, February 8, 2014

Mike Johnston: good coach?




This is a developmental league.  That goes for players as well as coaches, officials, equipment managers, etc.  I believe this is Mike Johnston's first head coaching gig - at least at a significant level of hockey.  From time to time you hear some criticisms of his work:





 
On a related note, here's an exchange between myself and Guy Flaming (regarding the 2014 WJC):







Here's an article by Daniel Nugent-Bowman about Pouliot playing on the top paring for Team Canada at the World Juniors:
Ekblad quietly watches how Pouliot approaches drills in practices or how he refocuses between shifts.
“You have to remember, there’s mentorship going on, but it’s going on in subtle ways,” said McGill, who works with Canada’s defencemen. “It’s not always verbal communication.” 
The guidance is paying off.
Hockeys future has a video interview with  Pouliot during the WJC tournament, which partially consists of asking him about some of the other talented kids we've been fortunate enough to see play here over the last several years.

Point being is that #51 looks to be erasing some of the criticisms of his play in the D zone, as well as the rap they don't coach that way in this town.  I'm writing this the day after Brendan Burke had a 174 minute shutout streak come to an end - and he's not doing that on his own, now is he?



Sometimes you hear things about star forwards, such as Nino Niederreiter & Ryan Johansen:



Then, on the same day, NHL.com ran stories about Johansen rounding into form, as well as Nino scoring a nasty OT goal.  With those two high draft picks, you could argue that MJ did too good of a job.  

The Islanders & Blue Jackets thought both players were NHL ready for their 19 year old seasons, yet didn't play them in significant roles, which is about the worst thing you can do to a young hockey player.  There's reasons that both those teams have struggled for a long time, and these examples demonstrate two reasons why.

Mike Johnston has posted winning percentages of .632, .715, .708 in his first 3 full seasons.  He's followed that up with an .820 in his partial season (suspension) - the team finished with an .812 & a league championship.  So far this season they're putting up .731.  MJ can build & coach teams that win games.

In his first full season they got out of the first round - which hadn't happened much in the last few years here.  The next 2 seasons they lost in the finals before hoisting the Ed cup.  In a developmental league, he's been getting better every year to this point.  There may have been issues developing the right culture in his 2nd year of coaching teenagers at an elite level - that's entirely possible.  

Most of the players that work with him at this point he's had for their entire junior careers,  which you'd think would allow him to instill the values he wants them to live by.  He's presumably developed a better balance of letting the kids run, yet keeping them under the team's umbrella.  Being a peer, friend, and authority figure.  When to crack the whip, when to build the player back up.  Coaching these high end players at such a tricky stage of their lives has to be more complicated than you or I could ever understand.

If we judge WHL coaches by how their players fare in the NHL, that would make Jim Hiller or Don Nachbar look pretty poor , when I think most regard them as quality coaches.  

I'm buying what MJ is selling.


Monday, January 13, 2014

Welcome Blake Heinrich!



The Winterhawks have signed Blake Heinrich. This is good news.

He was a 12th round bantam pick for Portland, and has blossomed into a 5th round NHL draft pick for the Washington Capitals.  He's an 18 this year, wearing the "C" for the Sioux City Musketeers, who play in the USHL. I grew up in USHL country, and have a team in my hometown.  This is a "junior A" league: these are mostly American kids, who are intent on NCAA scholarships. 

Its a complicated dance between these junior clubs and the college teams, trying to fill open NCAA spots with players ready to move up.  Sometimes the timing gets jumbled, and guys go the major junior route - that's what happened to Mac Carruth, for example.

The 'Hawks are loosing their top 3 defenseman after this year (much like last year) - Derrick Pouliot, Mathew Dumba, and Garrett Haar will all be playing pro next season.  Heinrich will fill in one of these spots, and by all accounts he will be a valuable addition.

Mike Johnston has had success finding players from non-traditional sources, and this qualifies as such.  If one looks at this like an offseason trade for a 19 D man, who's been drafted by an NHL team - those players usually command a high price. 

The only comparable I was able to find from this year (I don't have all damn day to look) is a player we just saw: Travis Brown, who the Victoria Royals just brought in from Moose Jaw.  He's a 19, and a 5th round Blackhawks pick.  The Royals gave up two 3rd round picks, and a 15 year old prospect who was also a 3rd round pick.  Basically three 3rds, with one of them being retroactive.

If that's the going rate for that kind of player, having one fall in your lap is pretty nice.  I believe the Caps don't have to sign him for 2 years, meaning that it is likely he's back as an overage - which sweetens the pot for Portland.  If you consider the difference from a 5th round NHL pick and the 7th overall pick of the 1st round - three 2nd's for Dumba looks pretty good in comparison, doesn't it?
19-year-old Travis Brown
19-year-old Travis Brown


Caps blog Russian Machine Never Breaks:

With the 144th pick in the draft the Capitals selected defenseman Blake Heinrich from Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

He’s small — 5-foot-10, 194 pounds — but Heinrich brings an imposing physical presence to the game. He doesn’t shy away from anything: he hits hard, trash talks, participates in the scrums, and cleans the crease when he needs to. He’s a guy who is a pain to play against. That resulted in 110 PIM last year in the USHL, third among the players under 18. It also earned him a spot as the 81st best North American skater according to NHL Central Scouting.

He’s not a liability in other areas of the game either. According to Future Considerations, who ranked him 76th, his footwork could use some work, but it’s far from horrible. A smart defender, he takes few chances breaking out of the zone. Heinrich does a good job making simple, effective defensive plays. He was also seventh in points among U18 defenseman in USHL, which shows he can play some offense as well.

Minnesota Hockey Prospects:

Blake Heinrich plays each and every shift with a physical nastiness. The University of Minnesota Duluth commit is a strong and durable defenseman that bull rushes opponents, forcing turnovers in the process. Heinrich made a seamless transition to the USHL, having a successful rookie season with Sioux City. Heinrich supplied a gritty defensive game while chipping in 3 goals, 17 assists, and 110 penalty minutes in 42 games played.

Heinrich is not big for a defenseman, (5’11-190) but what he lacks in height, he makes up for in strength. The former Hill-Murray star has good mobility and does an exceptional job at reading the play in front of him. Heinrich never gives the impression that he is guessing on a play as he has a natural instinct to be in the right place at the right time. An area of Heinrich’s game that needs improvement is his puck control skills. Advancement in this capacity would round out Heinrich’s offensive game and make him a complete player.

Overall Heinrich is a blue-collar worker on the ice that is a joy to watch thanks to his ability to play the body. Heinrich could be more offensive, but he’s a good coverage defender that gives very little space to opposing forwards. His playing style is similar to Dennis Seidenberg of the Boston Bruins.

Chris Dilks pre-draft report:

 As far as NHL Draft narratives go, Blake Heinrich's is pretty boring. There were no big swings in his ranking by NHL Central Scouting. He started the year as a 'B' ranked player, was ranked 72nd at the mid-term, and ended the year at 81st in the final ranking. He plays a quiet, steady, defensive style that doesn't draw a lot of attention. He isn't unnaturally big. But don't confuse a lack of pre-draft hype for a lack of talent.
 His coming out party, so to speak, was the 2012 Minnesota State High School Tournament, where Heinrich, who came into the season as the only defenseman on his Hill-Murray team with any varsity hockey experience, helped carry his team to the state championship final with a masterful defensive performance. Over the summer, he made a commitment to play his college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, and decided to forgo his senior year at Hill-Murray to play his draft year with the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.




Rinkside Update: Blake Heinrich 8/2/13


video platformvideo managementvideo solutionsvideo player



The USHL has a Top Prospects Game, and Heinrich played in it one year ago:

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Portland VS Halifax: Memorial Cup Final preview



The Winterhawks victory over London puts them in the Memorial Cup Championship Game.  Its been an interesting tournament, and the main thing to consider is everything is based off of such a small sample size.  That being said, lets look at these teams and where they are trending.

How Portland got here:


 Goaltending is critical in any situation, but its never more critical than a single elimination tournament.  In 4 games, Carruth allowed 7,3,2, and 1 goals - in that order.  The logical conclusion would be to give up zero on Sunday, so you heard it here first.  He was bad in that first game, vs Halifax, and he'll be the first to tell you that. Most of us thought he would rebound from that game, and he has.

Dylan Bumbarger made the point coming into this tournament that the round robin portion was essentially a series of "Game 1's" - and the 'Hawks were 2-2 in Game 1's this playoff year.  That includes a loss to Everett, who had half the wins that Portland earned.  They also were 4-0 in Game 2's, which demonstrates their ability to make adjustments & correct mistakes.  London was the only team they've seen twice, and took care of business.  They have game tape vs Halifax, and know exactly what mistakes were made.

Special teams have been an issue all week.  By my math, Portland's powerplay is clicking at 12.5% right now, after going 24.5% on the powerplay in the WHL playoffs and 23.4% in the regular season.  I've heard a lot about bad ice, which really hurts the kind of flashy plays these guys thrive on, but you'd like to think they can adapt.  A goal (or 2) would go a long ways in the final.

The penalty kill has been even more of a problem:  a 64.3 % kill rate is a failing grade.  The PK was 93.7% in the playoffs and  87.9% in the regular season, and its my opinion that killing penalties was the #1 reason for team success this year.  The 'Hawks gave up 4 PPG's against in the entire WHL playoffs (while scoring 5 shorthanded), and have given up 5 this week.

A stellar special teams performance, and we are likely celebrating a Memorial Cup win on Memorial Day.


How Halifax got here:


I think the Mooseheads are smoke & mirrors.

They won 2 games, against Portland & London.  As we touched upon earlier, Carruth was terrible in that game.  Its been thrown around that 5 of those goals were bad - if he stops those, that game is 4-2 the other way.

The London game featured a complete goaltending disaster.  To recap, London committed to Stolarz for the OHL playoffs, and he was good.  In the league finals, they went down 3-1, and went with Patterson for the final 3 games - which they won.  No one knew who they would go with for Game 1 vs Saskatoon.  London played 2 round robin games featuring both goalies, and 1 game where the starter finished.  Give credit to Patterson for a good game VS Portland in the elimination round, but that's a different topic.

The other game Halifax played, they lost 5-2 to Saskatoon:  a team that had lost their last 13 postseason games.  What did the Blades have going for them?  Competent goaltending.  The only game that Halifax was in this week where they saw decent goaltending, they scored 2 goals & lost.  

The simple answer is to employ an above-average goalie performance against them, and the 'Hawks have the guy for that.


 Conclusion:

This game features a team that's played every other day since the tournament began VS a team that last played on Tuesday, going on Sunday.  You hear all the time about getting into a rhythm, they love to play every other day.  

The loss of Taylor Leier is pretty big, and the good fortune the 'Hawks have enjoyed with few major injuries this season were huge in their success.   Bittner hasn't clicked on the 2nd line just yet, but we've seen what he can do when given the opportunity, and the future is really bright with this kid.  Portland's depth is solid:  they've got kids in street clothes good enough to star on a lot of WHL teams.

This is a matchup where one goalie has 17 league playoff games of experience, and the other has 18 games of league finals experience.  Fucale is a much hyped 17, who is getting 1st round draft talk.  He might turn out to be something truly special, and that's great - but on Sunday he's still going to be a 17 year old goalie up against an overager with a pro contract in his pocket.  I like these odds.





Saturday, May 18, 2013

Paying the cost to be the boss





Traditionally contending teams will load up at the trade deadline hoping to make a run at a championship.  Generally, if your run is successful, then it doesn't matter what you gave up, right?  In the NHL, I think that people hold the Ray Bourque trade, as well as the Joe Nieuwendyk/Jarome Iginla trade in these regards.  They both resulted in Stanley Cup championships, so what assests you spent are inconsequential.

In the last few seasons here in 'Dub country, we've seen some blockbusters as well.  A few that stick out are:

Brayden Schenn & a 3rd - for two 1sts, a 2nd, a 1st round import pick, and two prospects. The Blades were swept in the 2nd round that year.

Carter Ashton & and a 3rd - for two players, a 1st, a 2nd, and a 5th.  They won a round that spring.

Cody Eakin - for a roster player, 4 prospects, a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.  That 8 assets for one guy, although he helped power the Ice past the 'Hawks in the 2011 WHL Final.

We've seen some risky trades here locally over the last few years as well - folks have mixed emotions about the Marcel Noebels trade: those 1st's could be really valuable, but the league may have taken them away anyway.  Is making Game 7 of the league finals success? 

See also:  The Cam Reid trade.

This season, you had trades like the Oil Kings giving up a 2nd for half a season of (local product) Trevor Cheek, as well as a good D man + a 1st for David Musil.  

Kamloops gave up a 3rd & a 5th for Sam Grist, as well as picking up Joel Edmundson & a 4th -  for a roster player, a 1st, and a guy taken in the 1st round last year.  

Spokane gave up a 3rd, a 5th, and two players for Alessio Bertaggia.  

There's a pattern here:  none of these teams had the horses to run with Portland.

This brings us to the WHL Champion Portland Winterhawks.  They made no trades all season, aside from finding a home for Cam Lanigan.  Obviously the big trade was the Seth Jones deal:  two 16's that have shined for the 'Tips, an 18 D man who they are happy with, and a NCAA player that neither team was likely to sign.

Referring to the above discussion, it may not matter what the 'Hawks gave up - as they have now won the franchises 3rd WHL championship - and are in the hunt for the Memorial Cup.  That being said, Jones looks like a steal compared to the Shenn or Eakin trades, doesn't it?  

I was concerned at the time, as they gave up quite a bit in the Noebels & Reid deals.  However, if you look at the players in that deal: Betker wasn't going to make this team as a defenseman - we have good D men who can't crack the lineup as is.  Same story with Sandhu & Skapski:  the last thing the Winterhawks need is more promising 16's up front that you can't find ice time for.  Remember, the rotation they ran all year trying to get these guys shifts?  We saw a 16 year old forward score game winners in 4 straight games, only to be healthy scratched the next game.  There was no room at the inn for the guys that were sent to Everett.

Just for fun, lets assign the picks lost in the sanctions to the Jones trade.  One could look at it like they gave up those 4 assets, in addition to five 1st rounders.  

(Once upon a time the St Louis Blues thought it was worth five 1sts for Scott Stevens, but that's a different story)

Upping that to 9 assets, is the Jones trade that much more costly than the Shenn or Eakin deals?  Are they in the same ballpark?  I would argue they gave up quality assets, but ones that they could not use - so what the 'Hawks gave up had very little value to Portland.  Throw in the sanction picks, and you may have a price closer to what Jones was worth.

Especially if they go out and bring home the Memorial Cup.

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Sunday, May 12, 2013

Edmonton V Portland: Game 6








scoresheet

photo essay

real time fan discussion
Now for the longest 20 min. in our season.
in our season in our lives
Well said!

To this point...
 Paul Buker on MJ:
“You know what makes this special?’’ he said. “You watch guys like (Troy) Rutkowski and (Tyler) Wotherspoon raise the trophy up. They were 15 or 16 years old when you first met them. And now you see them finishing their careers like this. You see Rutkowski, playing at home (he’s from Edmonton), raising that trophy. You see Ty Rattie get three goals. … I mean, what a story. It was just a phenomenal run.’’
Johnston said he had supreme confidence in the Hawks’ ability to overcome all obstacles this season, whether it was the WHL sanctions, or Michael St. Croix’s overtime goal that forced a Game 6.
“It’s one thing when you’re worried about a team because you don’t think they have what it takes to win, maybe you don’t have the personnel, or the character. But our team, through the course of the season, they proved time and time again, if it’s a big game, they will rise up.’’

"Crash" Cameron

“We had that 1-0 lead right off the hop and there was lots of energy in the building, lots of energy in our game, then to give up a couple of goals on the power play, it just deflates you,” said head coach Derek Laxdal. “It basically took us out of the game and fuelled their energy.
“We left it on the ice,” said Lazar. “We battled hard and Portland is heck of a team. Good luck to them.”
Terry Jones
  They trudged down the hall to the dressing room after shaking hands with the Portland Winterhawks, heads down and tears in the eyes of most of the guys.
On Mother’s Day a year earlier, the Edmonton Oil Kings carried the Ed Chynoweth Cup on the same ice against the same team.
On this day, after another exceptional season, the Oil Kings didn’t look like they deserved to be on the same ice as they lost a third straight series game at home, this one by the embarrassing score of 5-1.
 Chris O'Leary
 After Ty Rattie’s hat trick led the way to a 5-1 win, after Western Hockey League commissioner Ron Robison handed Rattie the Ed Chynoweth Cup, and after all of the Portland Winterhawks took turns hoisting the trophy with their censor-riffic cheers echoing through an emptying Rexall Place, the torch was officially passed.
The Winterhawks wrapped up the WHL final in six games over the Edmonton Oil Kings on Sunday. They gathered at centre ice, piled over top of one another on the Oil Kings’ logo and posed for a team photo, physically pushing the past aside and assuming their spot as kings of the league.
Tribune:

Rattie's three goals gave him a WHL-playoff record 50 for his career, and the first two turned the course of Game 6 in the first period.
"My dad told me before the game that big-time players step up in big-time games," said Rattie, a St. Louis Blues prospect from Airdrie, Alberta.
Rattie was named MVP, which goes to the outstanding player in all four rounds of the WHL playoffs.
"This feeling isn't going to go away for a long time," Rattie said. "We knew we had the team to be here. We just had to finish the job."

 This game was much like the rest of the series, in that the Oil Kings couldn't score unless the 'Hawks made drastic mistakes, and the 'Hawks 2nd line was key. That snipe by Bjorkstand was amazing: the release on that shot was so good the cameraman lost the puck.  LB got some of it, but not enough of it.

If that goal cancels the Pouliot own-goal, then all that is left is the Rattie hat trick.  Dude ended up with 50 career playoff goals, which is amazing.  Comparing eras, where there were literally twice the scoring as there is now, and we just witnessed a guy put up an all-time number.  His 1st playoff goal was that Game 7 OT winner in Spokane, the last 3 were tonight.  Three game winners in this series.  We just witnessed a truly special junior career - with one tournament yet to be played.

Such a special season.  The main factors in my mind are obviously the sanctions, particularly the loss of Mike Johnston.  At that point, you've taken a team that was 20-4 and made them the underdogs.  They have their backs up against the wall - its "us against the world" - no better motivator than that.

The NHL lockout had a heavy affect on this team.  Its all 'what if' - but I believe that all three overagers: Carruth, Rutowski, and Peters make AHL teams in a normal year.  The fact that we entered these playoffs with all 3 of them signed to pro deals backs this up.  You NEVER have 3 signed overagers in major junior - your 20's are generally guys who haven't singed pro deals, and are trying to decide between going to school or trying to catch on in the minors. 

This team had a Captain, a record setting goalie, and a guy who took virtually every defensive zone faceoff for the last 2 months fall into our laps, rather than playing in the AHL.  There is huge value there.

For me, one of the biggest things about winning the WHL may be that the Winterhawks are not the Buffalo Bills - who lost 4 straight Superbowls, being the butt of choking jokes forever. 

Next game, in Saskatoon, against Halifax.  1st on the list - stopping this dude:







Friday, May 3, 2013

2013 Bantam Draft

The 2013 WHL Bantam draft was just completed.  The best place for coverage would be Alan Caldwell's blog Small Thoughts at Large (I linked to the 6th round, since that's where the 'Hawks started picking).

Paul Buker was there, capturing the spirit of the thing.
The Hawks were forbidden from participating in the draft's first five rounds, part of their penalties administered by the WHL in November for player-benefit violations. Portland also loses first-round Bantam Draft picks next year and in 2015, and 2016, and 2017.
The team's first pick came in the sixth round, 121st overall, when the Hawks took defenseman Carter Czaikowski from the Calgary Flames Bantam AAA team, where he led his team's defensemen with 11 goals and 28 assists for 39 points in 32 games.






It was 19 years ago when I fell in love with the game, in my basement in small town Nebraska.  The 1994 Rangers-Devils series sold me on hockey - that Game 7 was special.  My first playoff run as a fan featured "The Guarantee" - of course I was hooked.

I listen to a podcast every weekday about the NHL - Marek v Wyshynski.  The hosts are a guy from Toronto & a guy from New Jersey.  Its been interesting to see the difference with the Ontario native gradually teaching the 'Merican where these kids come from. 

Like the vast majority of American NHL fans, Wysh had no idea how the system works - we think these guys parachute in on their 21st birthdays or whatever and go into the minor league system, which we understand from baseball.  I've been there as well.

As dedicated fans of Major Junior, we understand the pipeline to the NHL, and we also pick up on how NCAA hockey works, even if it is only related to the competition for players at this level.  However, most of us are similarly oblivious to where we get OUR guys from. 

In the 'Dub, teams draft kids completing their 14 year old season.  These guys will be eligible for training camp the following season, and up to 10 games in the regular season (you can ask the league for more games for them, if you are injured and whatnot).  They are not eligible for regular duty until their 16 year.  Fans don't have this quite figured out, at least not Facebook commenters after EVERY 'Hawks game this year with quips like "they better win this year, 'cause those draft picks are gonna kill 'em next season".  Those folks must think you are stocking a top line with 15 year olds, which ain't how it works.

When being kicked out of the first 5 rounds of this draft could hurt would be 4 & 5 seasons from now, as that's when this class will be in their 18 & 19 years, which is when they are counted on to contribute.  The 2017 1st rounder (the last one forfeited) would be in his 19 year in 2021, I think.  There's a delay to the pain with this.

When I touched on this last, we looked at where the current 'Hawks were picked - some high, some late, some not drafted at all.  I'm optimistic that the 'Hawks will continue to find good kids that slipped through the cracks, or American kids who had perceived NCAA leanings, and bring in some quality players.

To touch on Dylan's point:  I get the impression the only people who follow midget hockey are Major Junior / NCAA scouts & the kids parents who are playing at that level.  Perhaps I'm mistaken, but it looks like that to me.  The CHL is the first "world stage" - I think.

My feelings on this years bantam draft are simple.  First, this was the first time that the Vancouver Giants picked 1st overall since they took Gilbert Brule - and he turned out pretty good.  Not so much as an NHL player, but as a guy who picked up Bono hitchhiking one day.

Lastly, the pick of the Bellows kid - his dad went 2nd overall, and won the 1993 Stanley Cup. Of course, Brian Bellows had his detractors, and some felt during his first trip to the Stanley Cup Final he lacked toughness.....(NOT SAFE FOR WORK)