In defense of the shootout

First off, I don't like the shootout anymore than anyone else.

I do, however, believe its a necessary evil.

I watched 11 years of hockey which included ties.  Ties are terrible, and I don't think that people remember how empty it feels investing 3 hours of your life in a game only to walk away with as if it never happened - there is no winner.  You wanna go back to ties?  No thank you.  The "kissing your sister" quote always stuck with me.

One of the main criticisms of the shootout is that it is a one on one format in the context of a team game, and that's a valid point.  Breakaways are part of the game, but they don't occur in alternating instances of 6+ in the course of a night.

I don't like how we drop down to 4 on 4 for overtime - we just spent 60 minutes of 5 on 5.  If we are so exited about goals, and the 5th player is a detriment to scoring, why do we have him out there for regulation?  Some say the shootout is a gimmick, but what about changing the number of players who are eligible to take the ice, just 'cause its sudden death?  Seems gimmicky to me.

Sure, you see 4 on 4 most nights, but its usually brief and in the context of overlapping penalties, or is the result of coincidental minors.  What percentage of the season is played 4 on 4?  If you play 3 minutes of 4 on 4 per night, that's 5% of the game.  Seems about as far from regular gameplay as a series of penalty shots, if you ask me.

In life, as in outside hockey, I'm big into the concept that if you are critical of X, and argue that it needs to go away, then you have to present an alternative in order to do so.  I don't like paying taxes:  no one does.  The alternative to all of us paying no taxes means no roads to drive on, firemen to do their thing, or law enforcement to prevent us from being robbed.  That's not a realistic alternative.

So we've established that ties aren't acceptable, but we don't like the shootout.  Lets look at the alternatives.  You see 3 on 3 thrown out there - often in an unlimited format.  Again, I don't like ditching one player for minutes 60 through 65 - then you really wanna blow the horn and leave another guy on the bench for an additional 5 minutes?  The 3 on 3 advocates among us don't feel that its gimmicky, yet in the 20 years I've been watching the game I've never seen 3 on 3 play, yet I've seen quite a few penalty shots.

What would football look like if you took 40% of the players off the field in an effort to induce a score?  In the 10th inning of a ball game you take the shortstop, 3rd baseman, and left fielder off - in an effort to keep it a team game: would we accept that?  We're already benching the shortstop, which I think is bad enough.

What are you gonna do if no one scores when its 3 on 3?  Aren't you getting dangerously close to 1 on 1 there?  I've heard one staunch shootout critic throw out an idea of a series of alternating 2-on-1's, which satisfies my criteria of having an alternative to suggest.  I'm not sure if I like that idea, but its at least something to think about.

As an American voter, I've learned to live with a lesser of two evils approach, which is why I back virtually anything that gets us away from ties.  Now, if you want to be critical of the "loser point" - you'll get more traction with that argument, in my opinion.  Gregg Drinnan will point out that 17 out of the 22 WHL teams have a .500 or better record right now, which seems statistically impossible.

We just witnessed an Olympic tournament where a regulation win was worth 3 points, an OT win 2, and an extra time loss earned a single point.  Personally, I could get behind a points system like this, as it incentivizes winning in regulation, yet doesn't strip you of a potential tie point.  This system seems to work well in MLS, which is prone to ties.

Like I said, I don't like the current system any more than you do - but I'll take it over one with ties.  I'd take a coin flip VS a tie.  I would prefer that both captains engage in a duel at center ice before I see another tie.

If you have any better ideas, I'd love to hear 'em.  In the meantime, I'm fine with a series of penalty shots and someone walking out of the rink with a "W".

Mike Johnston: good coach?

This is a developmental league.  That goes for players as well as coaches, officials, equipment managers, etc.  I believe this is Mike Johnston's first head coaching gig - at least at a significant level of hockey.  From time to time you hear some criticisms of his work:

 

On a related note, here's an exchange between myself and Guy Flaming (regarding the 2014 WJC):

Brent Sutter is WAAAAYYY smarter than I am but I question having Dumba and Pouliot paired. Need at least one d-man that can play defence.
— Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) December 20, 2013

@TPS_Guy Pouliot has played a more well rounded game this season, partially out of necessity. Best D man = more responsibility in own end
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) December 20, 2013

@hawkeyblog You see him more than I do, I'm sure, but that was not evident in Edmonton or the WHL/Russia game.
— Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) December 20, 2013

@hawkeyblog I take part of that back, he was actually very good in Edmonton last month.
— Guy Flaming (@TPS_Guy) December 20, 2013

@TPS_Guy could also be wishful thinking / confirmation bias on my part, but he's been better - and playing a ton #whl #wjc
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) December 20, 2013

Here's an article by Daniel Nugent-Bowman about Pouliot playing on the top paring for Team Canada at the World Juniors:

Ekblad quietly watches how Pouliot approaches drills in practices or how he refocuses between shifts.

“You have to remember, there’s mentorship going on, but it’s going on in subtle ways,” said McGill, who works with Canada’s defencemen. “It’s not always verbal communication.” 

The guidance is paying off.

Hockeys future has a video interview with  Pouliot during the WJC tournament, which partially consists of asking him about some of the other talented kids we've been fortunate enough to see play here over the last several years.

Point being is that #51 looks to be erasing some of the criticisms of his play in the D zone, as well as the rap they don't coach that way in this town.  I'm writing this the day after Brendan Burke had a 174 minute shutout streak come to an end - and he's not doing that on his own, now is he?

Sometimes you hear things about star forwards, such as Nino Niederreiter & Ryan Johansen:

Then, on the same day, NHL.com ran stories about Johansen rounding into form, as well as Nino scoring a nasty OT goal.  With those two high draft picks, you could argue that MJ did too good of a job.  

The Islanders & Blue Jackets thought both players were NHL ready for their 19 year old seasons, yet didn't play them in significant roles, which is about the worst thing you can do to a young hockey player.  There's reasons that both those teams have struggled for a long time, and these examples demonstrate two reasons why.

Mike Johnston has posted winning percentages of .632, .715, .708 in his first 3 full seasons.  He's followed that up with an .820 in his partial season (suspension) - the team finished with an .812 & a league championship.  So far this season they're putting up .731.  MJ can build & coach teams that win games.

In his first full season they got out of the first round - which hadn't happened much in the last few years here.  The next 2 seasons they lost in the finals before hoisting the Ed cup.  In a developmental league, he's been getting better every year to this point.  There may have been issues developing the right culture in his 2nd year of coaching teenagers at an elite level - that's entirely possible.  

Most of the players that work with him at this point he's had for their entire junior careers,  which you'd think would allow him to instill the values he wants them to live by.  He's presumably developed a better balance of letting the kids run, yet keeping them under the team's umbrella.  Being a peer, friend, and authority figure.  When to crack the whip, when to build the player back up.  Coaching these high end players at such a tricky stage of their lives has to be more complicated than you or I could ever understand.

If we judge WHL coaches by how their players fare in the NHL, that would make Jim Hiller or Don Nachbar look pretty poor , when I think most regard them as quality coaches.  

I'm buying what MJ is selling.

Kozun Thinks Seattle Can Win Memorial Cup

Hey, you gotta believe in yourself, especially if your an athlete at an elite level.  Taran Kozon does.

Kozun, though, thinks his new team is the one to beat.

“I think we have a really good contender for the Memorial Cup,” Kozun said. “I think we can go far. If a team has to play us seven games, I don’t think they can keep up with us. We have just the size and the grit and the offensive ability.

“It’s really ours to lose, I think.”

Seems reasonable - especially coming from a goalie with all the playoff experience that Kozon has, which is 0 games played, 0 minutes and a 0.00 GAA.  His backup has similar numbers.  Kozon is currently 24-25 for his carer, and you only gotta be 4 games over .500 in the playoffs to hoist the cup.

They have strong leadership behind the bench, as Steve Konowalchuk has earned a 81-99-17 record behind the Thunderbirds bench, as well as a 3-4 playoff record.  He's also known for putting up 92 points for the Winterhawks in 1991, and taking the Avalanche to the second round in 2004.

The Thunderbirds have traditionally been a successful franchise - over the last 10 seasons they've appeared in 9 playoff series - with 3 series victories.  Juggernaut.

Kono is confident as well:

A confident Thunderbirds team could be in the the right position — playing its best hockey potentially heading into the tournament just weeks away.

“I know the guys are excited, we’re putting ourselves in position. We definitely want to battle for that home ice (advantage) in the first round and Portland isn’t out of our sights,” said Konowalchuk. “We have a goal and we believe we can do it.”

 Shouldn't be a big deal.  Seattle is 3-5 against Portland this year, which is pretty good considering they have lost something like 40 of those games over the last 4 seasons. (Portland is 5-1-2 vs SEA this year).  All Seattle needs to to is sweep the last 4 games vs Portland, and they should have a shot at that division title.

All that's left is to tie up a couple loose ends, like getting through the 'Hawks (0.726 winning %), the Rockets (0.837) and then either the Oil Kings (0.735) or Hitmen (0.673).  Kind of reminds me of when Brashear would wipe his hands after taking care of business.  The bigger they come, the harder they fall, right?

Sounds like Seattle fans should be shopping for tickets to London, if you ask me.

When is losing your best player to suspension a good thing?

photo: Jimmy Budinski

Many of us were pretty frustrated when Brendan Leipsic got suspended.  I was one of them:

@jleipsic8 @bleipsic we weren't using him for anything
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) January 1, 2014

Its one thing for the highest scoring team in the WHL to lose a guy off of the top line - the key to this was the timing of it, with 3 other top players overseas at the time.  The Winterhawks went 2-5 over the 7 games that Leipsic was suspended.  Of course, they were short other players simultaneously, but I would argue that only magnifies the importance of #28 in the lineup.

Its unclear if the 'Hawks could have caught Kelowna anyway, but those two head to head games really hurt - those are generally referred to as "4 point games" - so it was an 8 point weekend.  You could look at it like this suspension + WJC may have cost home ice advantage, should the 'Hawks face the Rockets.

I haven't seen this expressed elsewhere, but its my opinion that Leipsic not getting the call from Team Canada contributed directly to his suspension.  For a guy who led the WHL in scoring last year, and had a good playoff run - you had to expect his 19 year to be a big one.  The Predators were high on him in camp this year.  It seemed to me when the WJC lists came out with no #28 - that his game changed, and we saw more of the Leipsic who's more interested in putting guys through the glass than pucks in the net.

The game in Red Deer, in front of Canada coach Brent Sutter, Leipsic was particularly ornery.  Scored 2 goals, 1 assist, +1, #1st star - but the play that sticks out is he threw a serious hit right at the buzzer.  One of those unnecessary plays that reeked like frustration to me.


Dylan Bumbarger has been known to throw truth bricks:

To say something obvious: 28 has to cut that out if he wants a career beyond the Central Hockey League. That was rumored to be a reason he wasn't picked to go to camp with Team Canada, as well.

So we're watching the 'Hawks during this stretch, and they're getting shelled.  The players are frustrated, the fans are frustrated, and I've gotta think that Leipsic is frustrated.

I wonder if this game was as difficult for Leipsic as it was for the rest of us? #whl
— CellPhones&PlaneTix (@hawkeyblog) January 1, 2014

If the purpose of punishment is to alter behavioral patterns, than lets hope this discipline was successful.  Those 24 days between games presented a lengthy opportunity for self reflection, as well as influence from the 'Hawks & Predators brass.

The results have been impressive: in 8 games post suspension he's potted 8 goals, 10 assists, and is +13.  Sure, he's picked up 14 PIM in that stretch, but nothing too serious.  He's the kind of guy who needs to play "on the edge" to be successful, and he appears to have rediscovered where that edge is.

Often times I make the point that there are penalties worth taking, regardless of the result.  If your goalie gets ran, and you take a penalty roughing the guy up, thats fine.  Even if they score on the powerplay, that's still fine.  Even if it costs you the game (once in a while), you can live with it.  You can't just let guys take liberties.

We may look at this 2-5 stretch as the best thing that could have happened to this 'Hawks team.  It sure looks like that time out of the lineup has refocused Leipsic for the stretch run.  He just may have a little extra gas in the tank for a long playoff run, too.

Time will tell.

Some play outside the rules, and some Playfair

 Things have been interesting for Jackson Playfair recently.  First, he gets traded from the Spokane Chiefs to their mortal enemies the Tri-City Americans.  Somewhere in the midst of this he found himself with some Washington companionship, drawing the ire of his Girlfriend of 6 months:  Tieja MacLaughlin.  The story is that she got pissed off and traveled 500 miles to confront him about things, and apparently death threats were involved.

This is a heavy incident.  As we've discussed, its only a game - Ilya Bryzgalov agrees.  Off the ice there is life, and these players deal with things that we all have to go through, and incidents like this happen sometimes.  While I was digesting this story today, I listened to this piece about domestic violence, and it seems to be a related issue in my book.

I'm with Playfair on this one.  Every relationship is complicated, and no one is 100% right/wrong, but whatever his shortcomings are don't warrant threats of any kind - particularly death threats.  There's a place for violence, and then there is real life.

Another related issue is the form of domestic violence where the man is the victim.  We have nothing to lead us to believe this was a part of this story, but it is part of many men's lives - which is an issue.  A online resource for these men had this to say:

While the majority of domestic violence victims are women, abuse of men happens far more often than you'd probably expect. Typically, men are physically stronger than women but that doesn't necessarily make it easier to escape the violence or the relationship. An abused man faces a shortage of resources, skepticism from police, and major legal obstacles, especially when it comes to gaining custody of his children from an abusive mother. No matter your age, occupation, or sexual orientation, though, you can overcome these challenges and escape the abuse.

Again, the vast majority of domestic violence victims are women, which generally forms our views of how to approach this societal cancer.  However many men are subject to similar violence.  More often than not females can carry out abuse without repercussions: they can hit the man all they want, as any physical retaliation generally lands the man in jail.  He-say-she-say in a fistfight leaves the man the guilty party.

During my early 20's I lived in Kansas City, MO: which is where I discovered hockey outside of the NHL.  The KC Blades  taught me the joy of attending games.  There weren't a whole hell of a lot of highlights from those seasons of the Blades, but I was fortunate enough to be in the barn for this:

I was accompanied to many games during that period of my life by a pretty blonde from Raytown, MO (the setting of Mama's Family).  This woman had a drinking problem.  Addictions of any type are difficult to live with, and this one tended to morph into violence on occasion.  In cases like this, the offender is also a victim, but they hold the keys to both of the issues at hand.  The 4 years I spent with this woman were the best of times & the worst of times - you could say it was "day to day".

Many domestic abuse victims have dealt with much more than I have, but I lived that way for too damn long.  Hopefully I learned from those experiences, and have been fortunate enough to not have those issues pop back up in my life.  I do have those memories still, and I have a soft spot for men with similar stories.  

My advice to Playfair would be to do just what he did, and get the law involved.  I assume he went to his team as well, and I hope they did what they could to support him.  We ask so much out of these teenagers:  we hold them up on a pedestal, ask them to entertain us, to bleed for us. They have a lot on their plate as is - guys like this don't need distractions like this to deal with, but sometimes they do.

My advice to you is to take these things seriously.  Stalking, violence, victims male & female - they all need our support.  If you find yourself in one of these situations, get some help.  Life is too short to live in those conditions.  There are resources out there for you, and those of us who are fortunate to avoid those situations should be a resource for the less fortunate among us.  Together we can fight back - in the right way.

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Matt Dumba, Anton Cederholm, and fighting

 

That sequence is why there is fighting in hockey.  This is a contact sport, played at 35 MPH, with a weapon.  There has to be a release valve, or else things will completely boil over.  I think we all understand that you cannot always count on the officials to administer justice properly - often times the game has to self police.

This was Mathew Dumba's debut in a Portland sweater.   As the video clearly shows, Eberle comes in high on Dumba, as is demonstrated by the assessment of a 2 minute minor.  Cederholm stands in for his newest teamate - he holds Eberle accountable for his actions.

Some would argue that simply taking the powerplay is the right move, but do you really want to leave these things in the hands of the referees?   There are players better suited for fisticuffs than Cederholm, but when you're on the ice & the first man there sometimes you've gotta get in there.

In this instance, Eberle got 2 for the initial hit, and Cederholm picked up an extra 2 + 10 for instating, negating the powerplay & leaving the 'Hawks short a defenseman for a 17 minute stretch of the game.  There were real consequences for Cederholm's actions there, and I'm just fine with that.  There are plenty of times that you will "invest" a 2 minute minor (or worse) to send a message - in this case the message is not to take cheap shots at our new star defenseman.

Even in instances where you give up a powerplay goal - that's still a better price to pay than allowing some goons to take runs at your guys.  

Another piece of this puzzle is these two defencemen probably don't even know each others names yet - and in Dumba's 1st game in Portland he sees his new family going to bat for him.  These occurrences often times go a long way in team building - helping to jell as a group.  That's pretty important this time of year.

Welcome Blake Heinrich!

@KellyFriesen @hawkeyblog how many cell phones did that cost?
— Michael Kinsman (@mhksports) January 13, 2014

The Winterhawks have signed Blake Heinrich. This is good news.

He was a 12th round bantam pick for Portland, and has blossomed into a 5th round NHL draft pick for the Washington Capitals.  He's an 18 this year, wearing the "C" for the Sioux City Musketeers, who play in the USHL. I grew up in USHL country, and have a team in my hometown.  This is a "junior A" league: these are mostly American kids, who are intent on NCAA scholarships. 

Its a complicated dance between these junior clubs and the college teams, trying to fill open NCAA spots with players ready to move up.  Sometimes the timing gets jumbled, and guys go the major junior route - that's what happened to Mac Carruth, for example.

The 'Hawks are loosing their top 3 defenseman after this year (much like last year) - Derrick Pouliot, Mathew Dumba, and Garrett Haar will all be playing pro next season.  Heinrich will fill in one of these spots, and by all accounts he will be a valuable addition.

Mike Johnston has had success finding players from non-traditional sources, and this qualifies as such.  If one looks at this like an offseason trade for a 19 D man, who's been drafted by an NHL team - those players usually command a high price. 

The only comparable I was able to find from this year (I don't have all damn day to look) is a player we just saw: Travis Brown, who the Victoria Royals just brought in from Moose Jaw.  He's a 19, and a 5th round Blackhawks pick.  The Royals gave up two 3rd round picks, and a 15 year old prospect who was also a 3rd round pick.  Basically three 3rds, with one of them being retroactive.

If that's the going rate for that kind of player, having one fall in your lap is pretty nice.  I believe the Caps don't have to sign him for 2 years, meaning that it is likely he's back as an overage - which sweetens the pot for Portland.  If you consider the difference from a 5th round NHL pick and the 7th overall pick of the 1st round - three 2nd's for Dumba looks pretty good in comparison, doesn't it?

19-year-old Travis Brown

19-year-old Travis Brown

Caps blog Russian Machine Never Breaks:

With the 144th pick in the draft the Capitals selected defenseman Blake Heinrich from Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

He’s small — 5-foot-10, 194 pounds — but Heinrich brings an imposing physical presence to the game. He doesn’t shy away from anything: he hits hard, trash talks, participates in the scrums, and cleans the crease when he needs to. He’s a guy who is a pain to play against. That resulted in 110 PIM last year in the USHL, third among the players under 18. It also earned him a spot as the 81st best North American skater according to NHL Central Scouting.

He’s not a liability in other areas of the game either. According to Future Considerations, who ranked him 76th, his footwork could use some work, but it’s far from horrible. A smart defender, he takes few chances breaking out of the zone. Heinrich does a good job making simple, effective defensive plays. He was also seventh in points among U18 defenseman in USHL, which shows he can play some offense as well.

Minnesota Hockey Prospects:

Blake Heinrich plays each and every shift with a physical nastiness. The University of Minnesota Duluth commit is a strong and durable defenseman that bull rushes opponents, forcing turnovers in the process. Heinrich made a seamless transition to the USHL, having a successful rookie season with Sioux City. Heinrich supplied a gritty defensive game while chipping in 3 goals, 17 assists, and 110 penalty minutes in 42 games played.

Heinrich is not big for a defenseman, (5’11-190) but what he lacks in height, he makes up for in strength. The former Hill-Murray star has good mobility and does an exceptional job at reading the play in front of him. Heinrich never gives the impression that he is guessing on a play as he has a natural instinct to be in the right place at the right time. An area of Heinrich’s game that needs improvement is his puck control skills. Advancement in this capacity would round out Heinrich’s offensive game and make him a complete player.

Overall Heinrich is a blue-collar worker on the ice that is a joy to watch thanks to his ability to play the body. Heinrich could be more offensive, but he’s a good coverage defender that gives very little space to opposing forwards. His playing style is similar to Dennis Seidenberg of the Boston Bruins.

Chris Dilks pre-draft report:

 As far as NHL Draft narratives go, Blake Heinrich's is pretty boring. There were no big swings in his ranking by NHL Central Scouting. He started the year as a 'B' ranked player, was ranked 72nd at the mid-term, and ended the year at 81st in the final ranking. He plays a quiet, steady, defensive style that doesn't draw a lot of attention. He isn't unnaturally big. But don't confuse a lack of pre-draft hype for a lack of talent.

 His coming out party, so to speak, was the 2012 Minnesota State High School Tournament, where Heinrich, who came into the season as the only defenseman on his Hill-Murray team with any varsity hockey experience, helped carry his team to the state championship final with a masterful defensive performance. Over the summer, he made a commitment to play his college hockey at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, and decided to forgo his senior year at Hill-Murray to play his draft year with the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL.

Rinkside Update: Blake Heinrich 8/2/13

The USHL has a Top Prospects Game, and Heinrich played in it one year ago: