Playoff goaltending: worst case scenario

 Winterhawks fans watching / listening to the game in Victoria on 3/12/13 had some concerns with Carruth being replaced in the 3rd period, due to some sort of injury.  The video doesn't tell you much, the play at hand is where it appears the Royals score their second, but under review it hit the crossbar.

Jason Vondersmith wrote a nice piece about the maturation process that we've been fortunate enough to see over the past 31/2 seasons - with some bonus coverage of his understudy.  There is no mention of injury, which isn't very surprising, but it could be a good sign.

I'd think that most fans feel that Burke would be just fine playing in the first round (EVT or SEA) - should be no problem.  Burke's had a hell of a year, and he's proably well ahead of where Carruth was in his 17 year.  If the NHL draft rankings are an indicator that you like, some have Burke as high as the 2nd round, where as Carruth went 5 spots from the bottom (7th round) - but has earned an NHL contract.

Of course, for a run to a WHL Championship you need to ride the goalie that is the best that you have in the present - and that's the veteran.  What would the second round look like if Carruth's not available?  Barring a major upset, the 'Hawks would get the winner of TC/SPO.  How did this years series go with each team, from a goalie's perspective?

 

 Portland V Spokane 2012/2013 goaltending stats

11/10/12
31 Carruth, Mac    1 60:00    44  43    2 W

12/18/12
31 Carruth, Mac   3  60:00   40  37    0 W

1/11/13
31 Carruth, Mac   2  60:00    26  24    0 W

1/21/13
31 Carruth, Mac   4  59:29    37  33    2 L

1/23/13
31 Carruth, Mac   4  65:00    30  26    0 SOL

1/25/13
31 Carruth, Mac   0  60:00    36  36    0

2/2/13
31 Carruth, Mac   0  60:00    26  26    0 W

2/18/13
31 Carruth, Mac   3  60:00    31  28    0 W

31 Carruth, Mac  8 GP  2.11 GAA  0.937 SV %
1  Burke, Brendan  N/A

What jumps out here is that Burke hasn't seen the Chiefs all year (with 1 game remaining) - so that's kind of a "known unknown"

 

Portland V Tri-City goaltending stats

9/23/12
1  Burke, Brendan 2 60:00  26  24    0  W

10/28/12
31 Carruth, Mac   0 60:00  15  15    0  W

12/7/12
31 Carruth, Mac     3 58:46  13 10    4  L

12/9/12
1 Burke, Brendan  1  60:00  26  25  0 W

12/28/12
1 Burke, Brendan  3  60:00  46  43  0 W

12/29/12
31 Carruth, Mac    3  60:00  32  29  0 W

1/26/13
1 Burke, Brendan  0  60:00  25 25   0 W

2/15/13
31 Carruth, Mac      5 45:01  24 19 0  L
1 Burke, Brendan    1 14:59   8  7 0

2/26/13
1 Burke, Brendan  4  59:28  32  28   0  L

31 Carruth, Mac      4 GP  2.95 GAA  0.869 SV %
1 Burke, Brendan    6 GP  2.59 GAA  0.933 SV%

What's interesting here is that Burke's numbers are actually quite a bit better against TC - and there's a bigger sample size to work with there as well.

In the long run, who the hell knows what any of this means, but I thought you might find it interesting.